Some US intelligence analysts aren’t so sure that North Korea’s much ballyhooed nuclear test really was all that — well — nuclear:
U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.
U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast’s readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.
“We’re still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture,” said one official familiar with intelligence reports. […]
The official said that so far, “it appears there was more fizz than pop.”
Are these officials blowing smoke? Who knows. This story originated in the Washington Times, so take it with a grain of salt, but it is true that the relatively low level of the explosion is significant. Low yield nuclear devices at the level of hundreds of tons of explosive force are atypical. Usually, a country’s initial nuclear tests are in the kiloton (i.e., thousands of tons of TNT) range.
Philip E. Coyle III, a former head of weapons testing at the Pentagon and former director of nuclear testing for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, said the unimpressive size of the test signaled the possibility of a partial success or failure.
“As first tests go, this is smaller and less successful than the other nuclear powers,” he said. “Now, maybe they intended to make it small, and perhaps they did, who knows?”
“But if it turns out to be a kiloton or less,” he added, “that would suggest that they hoped for more than that and didn’t get it.”
I do note that later in the Washington Times article, Russian officials are quoted as claiming the explosion was in the 5 to 15 kiloton range (equivalent to 5,000 – 15,000 tons of TNT). Which scientists and intelligence analysts should be believed, at this point, is impossible to ascertain. But perhaps we should display some caution before jumping off the deep end in our diplomatic response to this alleged provocation. What we don’t know vastly outweighs what we do know on the subject.
Meanwhile, leave it to NewsMax to run a story claiming Iranian scientists were present to observe the North Korean test:
Another potential problem facing the White House say U.N. sources is the belief that Iranian scientists may have been present at the North Korean nuclear test.
In recent weeks, published reports have claimed that North Korea and Iran may have been “exchanging” nuclear technology.
Per its usual practice, the NewMax article is woefully short of any supporting facts for these claims. Which UN officials were saying Iranian scientists were believed to be present at the North Korean test ids not disclosed, but I suspect it was someone in Ambassador Bolton’s office, if not Mr. Bolton himself. And the “published reports” of the exchange of nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea are also left unnamed and uncredited.
I’m sure, that if it served the Bush administration’s interests, Chinese or Russian scientists would have magically appeared at the test site as well. All thoroughly documented and sourced by NewsMax’s crack staff of foreign policy analysts and national security reporters, of course.
