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Contra Iran

Yossi Klein Halevi & Oren in TNR: (Iran) Israel’s Worst Nightmare

January 27, 2007 – The former head of Israel’s National Security Council, Giora Eiland, has warned that an apocalyptically driven Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be willing to sacrifice half his country’s population to obliterate the Jewish state. Military men suddenly sound like theologians when explaining the Iranian threat. Ahmadinejad, they argue, represents a new “activist” strain of Shiism, which holds that the faithful can hasten the Return of the Hidden Imam, the Shia messiah, by destroying evil.

For over two decades, since the era of former Prime Minister Menachem Begin, the Holocaust was rarely invoked, except on the extremes, in Israeli politics. In recent months, though, the Iranian threat has returned the Final Solution to the heart of Israeli discourse. Senior army commanders, who likely once regarded Holocaust analogies with the Middle East conflict as an affront to Zionist empowerment, now routinely speak of a “second Holocaust.”

For those Israelis who are skeptical of sanctions, there is the option of last resort: a military strike. Experts readily acknowledge the complexity of an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, since they are scattered over dozens of sites, many heavily fortified and deep underground. But an attack on three key sites–especially the uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz –would set back Iranian plans by several years. It would not be necessary, the former top-ranking defense official says, to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities: By repeatedly hitting their entrances, the sites could be rendered inaccessible. At the same time, Israel would probably bomb key government installations, like Revolutionary Guard bases, to weaken the regime’s ability to recover. While the Iranian people are likely to initially rally around the government, the combined effect of a military attack and economic sanctions could trigger an eventual uprising, suggests the former defense official. Periodic air strikes, he adds, would impede attempts to rebuild the nuclear sites.

If Israel is forced, by default, to strike, it is likely to happen within the next 18 months. An attack needs to take place before the nuclear facilities become radioactive; waiting too long could result in massive civilian casualties. Still, Israel will almost certainly wait until it becomes clear that sanctions have failed and that the United States or NATO won’t strike. The toughest decision, then, will be timing: determining that delicate moment when it becomes clear that the international community has failed but before the facilities turn lethal.


A Jewish state that allows itself to be threatened with nuclear weapons–by a country that denies the genocide against Europe’s six million Jews while threatening Israel’s six million Jews–will forfeit its right to speak in the name of Jewish history. Fortunately, even the government of Ehud Olmert, widely criticized as incompetent and corrupt, seems to understand that, on this issue at least, it cannot fail.

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    Testimony by Amatzia Baram, senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace, before the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee.

  • US forces turn on Iranians

    Najaf: 250 Radical Islamists Killed in Fighting

    It appears these so called extremists belong to a small sect of Islam, who are prepared to turn on the Muslim leadership to prepare the way for the Shia messiah: the Hidden Imam.  Dutch news bulletin from Mideast analyst Bertus Hendriks.

    Battle of Najaf (2007)

    Provincial Gov. Assad Sultan Abu Kilel said the assault was launched because the insurgents planned to attack Shiite pilgrims and clerics during ceremonies marking Ashoura, the holiest day in the Shiite calendar commemorating the 7th century death of Imam Hussein. The celebration culminates Tuesday in huge public processions in Karbala and other Shiite cities.

    Officials were unclear about the religious affiliation of the militants. Although Sunni Arabs have been the main force behind insurgent groups, there are a number of Shiite militant and splinter groups that have clashed from time to time with the government.

    Iraqi soldiers attacked at dawn and insurgents hiding in orchards fought back with automatic weapons, sniper rifles and rockets, the governor said. He said the insurgents were members of a previously unknown group called the Army of Heaven.

    “They are well-equipped and they even have anti-aircraft missiles,” the governor said. “They are backed by some locals” loyal to ousted dictator Saddam Hussein.

    "But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

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