What if the unthinkable happens and Hillary Clinton wins neither Iowa nor New Hampshire, while Mike Huckabee takes both contests on the Republican side?
Don’t laugh…it could definitely happen. Barack Obama is now polling ahead in Iowa and closing the gap in New Hampshire, while Huckabee has closed to a virtual tie in the Hawkeye State.
If you take a look at the Democratic nominating schedule you’ll see that the New Hampshire primary (on January 8) is followed by the Michigan primary on the 15th and the Nevada caucus on the 19th. That is followed by the South Carolina primary on the 26th and the Florida primary on the 29th. These are the contests that will set the stage for Super Tuesday when 2,064 delegates will be pledged from the results of contests in twenty-two states (including California and New York).
Given the schedule (and our scenario where Hillary does not win in IA or NH), Michigan looms large as a place where Hillary can regain her footing. But there is a problem. The DNC just stripped Michigan of all its delegates because they violated party rules by scheduling their primary too early. None of the major candidates will campaign in the state and:
Democratic candidates John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have withdrawn their names from the ballot to satisfy Iowa and New Hampshire, which were unhappy Michigan was challenging their leadoff status on the primary calendar.
That leaves Hillary Rodham Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and “uncommitted,” as the choices on the Democratic ballot in Michigan.
In other words, Hillary Clinton is going to win in Michigan no matter what happens in Iowa or New Hampshire. And she will probably get those delegates back at the convention. But it isn’t the issue of the delegates that is important (although it could become an issue if no candidate gains a majority of the delegates prior to the convention). The issue that should concern all of us is the perception of a Clinton win in Michigan and the potential for that perception to catapult her to victory in the nomination process.
On the Republican side, early Huckabee wins will create something close to pandemonium in Republican establishment circles. I think Robert Novak expressed the sentiment best in his column earlier this week.
Huckabee is campaigning as a conservative, but serious Republicans know that he is a high-tax, protectionist, big-government advocate of a strong hand in the Oval Office directing the lives of Americans…
The rise of evangelical Christians as the motive force that blasted the GOP out of minority status during the past generation always contained an inherent danger if these new Republican acolytes supported not merely a conventional conservative but one of their own. That has happened now with Huckabee…
That’s an unusually naked admission that evangelical Christians are seen as merely a means to an end, and they are less welcome leading the party than an African-American would be leading the Democratic Party. The embrace of Obama is proof enough of that. The real monied interests that have run the Republican Party from time immemorial are terrified of a Huckabee presidency, and they are not impotent to effect the outcome of the primary.
If Huckabee wins the first two contests (especially after not seriously contending in New Hampshire) it will do mortal damage to the campaign of Mitt Romney. That’s why Ryan Sager of the New York Post welcomes that possibility.
If there’s any redeeming irony here, it’s this: This populist surge [of Huckabee’s] could end up nudging the GOP in a more libertarian direction after all. If Huckabee knocks out Romney in Iowa, the Republican nomination seems assured for Rudy Giuliani.
Rudy is nobody’s idea of a libertarian (at least on issues such as government surveillance and executive power), but he’s fiscally conservative and socially liberal – the best a libertarian can hope for from today’s GOP.
Sager would be right except for one little thing. Giuliani’s campaign is currently imploding. What if Giuliani isn’t around to pick up the pieces?
If you take a look at the Republican nominating schedule you’ll see that they have a similar early schedule to the Democrats: Michigan on the 15th, Nevada and South Carolina on the 19th, and Florida on the 29th. Unlike the Democrats, the Republicans have not stripped all the delegates from Michigan and the candidates remain on the ballot and will campaign there. It is thought that Romney has an advantage in Michigan because his father was the governor (a long, long time ago). If Romney hasn’t won either of the first two contests, Michigan will be his last stand. Either way, Huckabee will be in a strong position in South Carolina.
Giuliani’s strategy is to stay competitive until January 29th and then win Florida. That’ll set him up on Feb. 5th to pile up delegates in states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California. But what if Giuliani isn’t viable anymore because of the collective weight of early losses and mounting scandal?
Who will stop Huckabee? The answer is, of course, John McCain. McCain could win in New Hampshire, but if he doesn’t he will be in a very poor position to stop Huckabee. Based on his current fundraising, he will be broke going into Super Tuesday. What will Robert Novak and the monied class of the Republican Party do to resuscitate the McCain campaign?
One problem they will have is that unlike Howard Dean or Bill Bradley, Huckabee has a very good relationship with the press. His pals in the media may not be willing to do their master’s bidding.
Clinton is brilliant to stay on the ballot in Michigan. It looks to me like it might be the deciding factor in the nominating process. Meanwhile, as I said in my strategy for Ron Paul the Republicans could wind up after Super Tuesday with a two man race between Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. And when they pile up all the delegates for the convention…the Yankee republicans will run in droves to the candidacy of Michael Bloomberg.
