Only 3% of Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa considered themselves to be Republicans, but Edwards did well among them. Only 23% of Democrats and Independents voted for him, but 32% of Republicans gave Edwards their support.
Edwards did considerably better (28%) among people that make over $100,000 a year than those that make less (21%). And consider this breakdown of Edwards’ support by ideology:
- Very Liberal 16%
Somewhat Liberal 25%
Moderate 22%
Conservative 42%
Iowa was Edwards’ best state and the place he campaigned longest and where the people knew him best. In New Hampshire there was no income correlation in Edwards’ vote and he did best among moderates rather than conservatives. There is one piece of data from the New Hampshire Exit Polls that might be encouraging to Obama supporters.
- Opinion of Bill Clinton (among Edwards supporters)
Strongly Favorable 12%
Somewhat Favorable 21%
Somewhat Unfavorable 27%
Strongly Unfavorable 0%
In South Carolina the income correlation showed up again with more people supporting Edwards that earned more than $100,000 (24%) than less (18%). Edwards also did extremely well among people that want to keep our troops in Iraq (41%) and Republicans (43%). Most importantly, Edwards actually won the white vote (40%).
When asked if they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, 33% of Edwards’ supports said ‘no’. When asked if they would be satisfied if Obama won the nomination 47% said ‘no’. The deeper you dig into Edwards’ white support in South Carolina, the more race-based it appears. But there really isn’t any evidence for a similar phenomenon in the other states.
As I have noted before, Edwards’ voters have never been who we would expect them to be based on ideology. They have been richer, whiter, more moderate to conservative, and more pro-war than Edwards’ rhetoric suggested they should be. His populist message neither attracted the downtrodden nor repelled the well-to-do. That’s a significant failure in Edwards’ campaign, but it can help us to understand where his voters will go now that he is out of the race.
Where do you think they’ll go?
