Let’s say you’re a certified military genius who knows everything about how to win the war in Iraq. Someone whose name rhymes with Betray us, for example. And let’s suppose in your infinite wisdom you implemented the truly marvelous and creative plan to arm the Sunni insurgents who had been killing your troops, and pay them real American dollars, too, in order to win over their allegiance to … well to not killing US troops at least, and maybe to hunting down those of their more extreme Sunni friends who weren’t so willing to take American arms and cash payments to stop killing Americans.
And surprise, surprise, even though your Shi’ite friends in the Iraqi government (to whom you are also supplying arms) didn’t much care for the idea, there is a drop in US casualties in Sunni dominated areas where these new Sunni “Awakening Councils” are operating.
There’s just one problem which our greatest general ever didn’t foresee, apparently. It seems that now they have arms equivalent to those which the Shi’ite dominated Iraqi government security forces have, the Sunnis are reasserting themselves against the people they see as their sectarian rivals for power in Iraq. But then who could have predicted that would happen. Right?
(cont.)
The Awakening Councils, or the Sahwa as they are called, are a mostly Sunni Muslim force set up by the US to draw in resistance fighters into their ranks and aid US forces.
The Sahwa have been engaged in a growing conflict with the largely Shi’ite Muslim forces of the Iraqi government.
t was sparked off by the rape and murder of two Sunni women, allegedly by members of Shi’ite militia that are backed by the government. The Sahwa in Diyala province, just north of Baghdad, have been demanding dismissal of police chief Major General Ghanim al-Qureyshi, a Shi’ite.[…]
On February 11, hundreds of Sahwa fighters demonstrated in Baquba, 40 kilometers northeast of Baghdad, demanding dismissal of Qureyshi and threatening to quit their jobs as neighborhood guards if he remained. Many have since left their US$300 monthly posts in protest.
The demonstrations have drawn in people from all around Iraq’s volatile Diyala province with streets filled with people hoisting protest banners. The Sahwa want to show they are a power that Baghdad cannot ignore.
A rally last Sunday led to armed clashes between Iraqi police and Sahwa members, in which three policemen were killed. […]
Abu Haider al-Katib, spokesman for the 1920s Revolution Brigades, the largest of the Sahwa components, told reporters that if their demands were not met, they would “take up arms” against the police “and US troops if they support the police”.
“We want jobs, that have been denied to Sunnis,” Abu Haider, another Sahwa leader in the city told IPS. “Americans and the Prime Minister [Nuri al-Maliki] promised that members of the Sahwa would be included as permanent Iraqi security forces. People want us to be official forces because they trust our seriousness in protecting our province. We restored life to streets and made people feel safe again.” […]
A member of a local Sahwa, referring to himself as Abu Noor, told IPS that their demands also included “an end to the licentious behavior of the sectarian police. From the time the militants left the streets, the police have behaved badly. We want the police and army to respect people. We want all Iraqis to feel that they are of great value in their country.”
The Sahwa are clearly gaining power in areas like Baquba – a phenomenon which threatens the government, and its army and police forces.
Actually, I’m sure someone warned General Petraeus (or he himself strongly suspected) that this sort of conflict between our “old allies” in the Shi’ite dominated government of Prime Minister Maliki, and our “new allies” in the Awakening Councils, might be a direct consequence of the “Redirection” strategy pushed by Dick Cheney of which supporting former Sunni insurgents was but a part. He just didn’t inform Congress or the American people of this significant risk which is now arising from this attempt to buy the allegiance of Sunni insurgents, and thus reduce US casualties.
Obviously, when US ground forces no longer have to patrol Sunni dominated areas because its new allies in the Awakening Councils have taken over that responsibility, less US troops are put in harm’s way, and less casualties are sufered by those troops. Unfortunately, these newly empowered Sunnis now, quite predictably, wish to take advantage of their relationship with the Americans to gain advantages over their Shi’ite rivals in the Iraqi army and government police forces. This development should have come as no surprise to anyone. The only question now is what further unintended, but also easily predictable, consequences will flow from our attempt to arm both sides in a civil war?
Because the Sunnis we have attempted to buy off with guns and money won’t stop their demands for increased power, whether we cut them off from the benefits of American largesse or not. Petraeus may have thought he was playing a clever game of divide and conquer, but it may be the Sunnis themselves who were really playing him.
