Senate Outlook

1. Virginia (OPEN SEAT- John Warner)

Challenger: Mark Warner

Primary winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +29%
2002 Margin: GOP ran unopposed

Analysis: Former Governor Mark Warner doesn’t need any help from the top of the ticket to be able to win this seat comfortably, but there can’t be much debate that Obama runs stronger here than Clinton. Exit polls indicate that Obama won the white male vote here, as well as women overall. With Obama and Warner on the ticket this state could not only vote blue in November, it could sweep in a couple of new House seats (e.g., VA-02 and VA-11).

2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)

Challenger: Jeanne Shaheen

Primary winner: Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama split the delegates here 9-9)
Margin: Clinton +3%
2002 Margin: GOP +4%

Analysis: Clinton eked out a surprise upset win here (although they technically split the delegates) and it’s possible that Clinton and Shaheen at the top of the ticket could help galvanize a big turnout among woman that could also help Carol Shea-Porter win reelection to her House seat. On the other hand, the New Hampshire GOP is demoralized and in retreat. Perhaps nothing could reenergize them more than the prospect of another Clinton presidency.

3. New Mexico (OPEN SEAT- Pete Domenici)
Challenger: Tom Udall

Caucus winner: Hillary Clinton
Margin: Clinton +1%
2002 Margin: GOP +30

Analysis: The retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici puts this seat in play. Recent polls show Tom Udall beating Heather Wilson 58%-30% and Steve Pearce 53%-31%. The caucus here was split nearly 50-50 between Obama and Clinton, so there is no obvious advantage in coattails from either one of them.

4. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

Challenger: Al Franken

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +3

Analysis: Al Franken is now the heavy favorite to become the DFL nominee here. A recent poll shows Franken trailing Coleman by a single percentage point. Obviously, coattails could be critical in this race. Obama’s 34% caucus margin over Clinton is as clear as day. An Obama ticket could be just the thing to put Franken over the top.

5. Colorado (OPEN SEAT- Wayne Allard)
Challenger: Mark Udall

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +5

Analysis: Udall is widely seen as a modest favorite in this race to replace the retiring Wayne Allard, but a recent Rasmussen poll had him trailing 43%-44% to former Rep. Tom Schaffer. Another recent poll showed John McCain clobbering Hillary Clinton in Colorado by a 14% margin while losing to Obama by a 7% margin. Obama’s 35% advantage in the Colorado caucuses is quite convincing. Clinton could easily cost Udall the election, while Obama might provide enough of a boost to put him over the top.

6. Oregon (Gordon Smith)
Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Primary winner: May 20th
Margin:
2002 Margin: GOP +4%

Analysis: The Oregon primary will not be held for three months. Obama is considered the favorite to win, but we’ll have to wait for the results to be sure. State Speaker of the House, Jeff Merkley, is favored to win the nomination over political activist Steve Novick. Oregon is a purplish/blue state where the Democrats should be strongly favored in November, regardless of the nominee.

7. Maine (Susan Collins)

Challenger: Tom Allen

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +19%
2002 Margin: GOP +18

Analysis: Obama’s stonger than expected performance here might be chalked up to the caucus format, but there’s no ignoring his 19% margin. Maine has a history of electing women to positions of power, but any coattail argument has to favor Obama based on the available data.

8. Alaska (Ted Stevens)
Challenger: Mark Begich

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +49%
2002 Margin: GOP +69

Analysis: Ordinarily, the Dems would have no chance to win Alaska in either the senate or presidential races, but recent scandals in the Alaska GOP have been so profound that anything is possible this year. Sen. Stevens is not only in his mid-80’s, he is under a FBI investigation. Popular Anchorage mayor Mark Begich has not yet formally announced his candidacy, but he is widely expected to run. Obama’s 49% advantage in the caucuses is plenty of evidence that anti-Clinton feeling stills runs strong in the 49th state. Winning Alaska’s three electoral votes is probably out of Obama’s reach, but keeping it close could help Begich take over this senate seat.