I can’t say I’m surprised by Hillary Clinton’s ebullient claim that she’s “going all the way,” because I am most assuredly NOT surprised. If ever I harboured any hope that the Clinton Power Machine existed for any reason other than to further Bill and Hillary Clinton’s own personal ambitions, any last vestiges of it were sucked up like dust mites in the vacuum cleaner last night.
Leaving aside the catastrophic possibility of the superdelegates handing Clinton the nomination in Denver (though I now believe that Clinton will not hesitate to undermine democracy in the Democratic Party if it’s the only way she thinks she can win), it is now mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for Clinton to win the 2,025 delegates needed for the nomination.
And barring overwhelming victories in every single primary/caucus remaining, Obama’s chances of gathering the needed number also rate a snowball’s chance in hell.
So it will come to one of the following scenarios:
Beware: I am very bad at math. Source: NYT
Either Clinton and Obama go to the convention each lacking the necessary delegates, thus ensuring a brokered convention…
Or the DNC works out a last minute pair of “do-overs” in Florida and Michigan to be held after the Puerto Rico caucus, some time in June.
Assuming (and granted, it’s a difficult assumption) that Clinton and Obama continue apace and end up splitting the remaining 611 delegates and the 366 disputed delegates of Michigan and Florida: That leaves Obama with 1,787 pledged delegates and Clinton with 1,669, give or take a couple.
At this writing, 456 of the 794 superdelegates are committed to Clinton and Obama (254 for Clinton, 202 for Obama).
Including an evenly split delegate count for Michigan and Florida, that would make the total count 1,989 for Obama and 1,923 for Clinton.
Assuming, again, an even split for the rest of the 338 superdelegates, Obama wins, 2,158 to Clinton’s 2,092.
Clinton would have to garner approximately 203 of the remaining 338 uncommitted superdelegates to defeat Obama.
Even adjusting for the SLIGHT possibility that in the remaining primaries and caucuses Clinton could close the gap in pledged delegates — and it is VERY slight, considering the margins of victory in virtually every state so far and the way that delegates are doled out — Clinton would still face the need to win a VAST majority of the uncommitted delegates.
In other words, unless the Clintons have photographic evidence of those superdelegates committing sodomy, Satanic rituals and cannibalism with dead babies… SHE CANNOT WIN.
Even if my math is wrong, it’s not THAT wrong. SHE CANNOT WIN.
But she can sure as hell “bloody up” Obama for the general and assure herself another chance in 2012.
What a fucking asshole.
