In the 2004 exit polls for Pennsylvania, Kerry won 84% of the black vote and blacks made up 14% of the electorate. Obviously, blacks make up a higher percentage of the electorate in Democratic primary where Republicans and Independents cannot vote than in a general election. So, why did all the pollsters estimate today’s black vote to be between 13%-18%?
The surveys show more variation on some characteristics than others. Most, for example, show the percentage of women as somewhere between 55% and 58%, and most show the African-American percentage as somewhere in the mid-teens. Of course, with Barack obama expected to receive 80% to 90% of the black vote, the difference between an African American composition of 13% and 18% can alter Obama’s vote total by 3 to 4 points.
The early exit polls are actually showing Obama winning 92% of the black vote. Both that number and the likelihood that high black turnout will lead to a larger percentage of the overall electorate than 19% lead me to believe that the polls underestimated Obama’s support significantly.
As far as I can tell, the contest is a dead heat. There are some leaked exit polls numbers showing both candidates ahead, but they both agree that the race is in the 4-6 point range. Exit polls are not reliable, especially this early in the day. The older voters have all voted, while working people are stuck in traffic. I don’t know who will win, but I am guessing it will be very close.
