I took a certain delight in reading the Wall Street Journal’s itemization of left-wing imposed horror if the Democrats win the presidency and 60 senate seats. Their list includes some hyperbole and distortion, but it looks like a good wishlist to me. I only wish I shared the Journal’s optimism that the Democrats will push so hard and so fast for systemic progressive change. I think I’m one of the most optimistic prognosticators in the blogosphere, and I have predicted all along that Barack Obama could and would win this election, and that the Dems could and might win a filibuster-proof majority and dozens of new House seats. I still believe that. But, I also want to throw a little cold water on the fire, here.
Picking up Senate seats in Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Alaska, and Colorado, is not going to mean that we suddenly have a filibuster-proof majority. On some things, yes, we’ll be able to steamroll the Republicans. But on Single-Payer Health Care? I don’t think so. I don’t care who is representing Kentucky or Alaska (or even Louisiana, Texas, and Oklahoma) in the U.S. Senate, they’re not going to be our friends on tackling carbon emissions.
We could win as many as 45 new House seats, but most of those districts are districts that voted twice for George W. Bush, and that voted for Ronald Reagan. Those new Democrats aren’t going to be particularly progressive in their outlook. A good example is Patrick Murphy from Pennsylvania’s 8th District, who won his seat in 2006, promptly joined the Blue Dog coalition, and compiled a fairly conservative voting record. Murphy gave us almost every vote we wanted (FISA being a glaring, depressing exception), but he voted his district. Most congresspeople vote their district, and most of these vulnerable districts are pretty conservative.
The old New Deal coalition included the southern segregationists. Our new ruling coalition will be much, much better than the one enjoyed by Presidents Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, JFK, and LBJ. But the coalition will still be more conservative than the one we enjoy right now. On the other hand, Congress, as a whole, will be much, much more progressive. In other words, even as the country is moving sharply to the left, the makeup of the Democratic Party will be moving slightly to the right.
But there are other factors that will favor progressivism. Ron Brownstein discusses one important factor, which is really more psychological than anything else. This election could mark the official end of the Era of Reagan. And that’s important because it will liberate Democrats from the cloud they’ve been living under for so long. Moving the nation from a Center Right country to a Center Left country is important. It’s important that our politicians and media elites perceive this shift and act accordingly. The media narratives will shift in the favor of progressivism and against a failed conservatism.
Another factor is the power distribution in Congress, including the committee chairs. Most of the Democratic chairs are held by older liberals. Whether it is George Miller on Education, Charlie Rangel on Ways & Means, Barney Frank on Financial Services, or John Conyers on Judiciary, the progressive power in the House is disproportionate to their raw numbers. Even in the Senate, we have liberal Senators Dodd on Banking, Leahy on Judiciary, and Kennedy on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions. I don’t expect much progressive change out of Ronnie Musgrove and Bruce Lunsford, but they won’t be setting the agenda.
Another factor that will help, is that the majority of committee chairs in Congress actually endorsed Obama over Clinton. That was surprising, but it alleviates a lot of the concerns raised in this WSJ piece about the problems Deval Patrick faced in Massachusetts after defeating the Establishment candidate in his gubernatorial primary. Obama will not be facing a bunch of old bulls that consider him an usurper. One of the unheralded stories of the Clinton presidency is just how badly he alienated Congressional Democrats and just how badly they made Hillary pay for their displeasure. Obama will find a friendly group in Congress. And a lot of the new Democrats from conservative seats will see Obama’s coattails as responsible for their victories. So, while they’ll cause trouble, they’ll do their best to be accommodating.
The one area where I agree with the Wall Street Journal is in their assessment that an era is coming to an end. And that means we will have to unlearn many of the lessons of being in the minority. The press will need to get amnesia, too. And quick, before that Fairness Doctrine thing kicks in.
