Hopefully, you’ve heard that only two candidates qualified to be on ballot in Virginia for the Republican primary: Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. It’s rather inopportune for this news to come out a mere week before the first contest, in Iowa. It makes Newt Gingrich and the other non-qualifiers look extremely unelectable at the exact time that they’re trying to make the opposite case. If I’m opposed to Romney, I have to take a harder look at Ron Paul. As far as I am concerned, there are three things to look for as potential outcomes of the Virginia fiasco.
First, it could take more air out Gingrich’s tires, but also any momentum Rick Perry or Rick Santorum might be building in the Hawkeye State. Ron Paul could be the beneficiary of that, and he might post a stronger victory in Iowa than people are anticipating. There’s another subset of voters who are opposed to Ron Paul on foreign policy issues who may just throw up their hands and settle for Romney. We might see a result where the third-place finisher polls quite far behind the second-place finisher. In other words, we could see a strong Paul victory, followed by a relatively weak second-place finish for Romney, with the rest of the pack in single-digits.
Second, Gingrich is still polling well ahead in both South Carolina and Florida. His job is to do well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire that his polling lead in the South doesn’t evaporate. Failing to get on the ballot in Virginia is a major blunder that makes Newt’s job much harder.
Third, now that the Virginia race has become a one-on-one contest between Romney and Paul, we get to find out which candidate has the true ceiling. Ironically, Ron Paul has a lot of support from rank-and-file members of the military. Members of the U.S. Army and Navy are his two biggest financial contributors. Yet, Virginia is awash with active and retired military officers, who will tend to be opposed to Ron Paul’s positions on military policy and spending. And then there is the Intelligence Community. The Virginia primary will be a true Clash of the Titans, and we’ll learn something most of us want to know. Also, remember, Virginia law prohibits write-in votes in the primaries. This will be a true race for 50+1%. The assumption has always been that neither Romney nor Paul could actually win such a contest, but one of them will.
If Ron Paul wins in Virginia, it’s hard to see why he couldn’t win the nomination. But the Republican Establishment will do anything to prevent that from happening.
Grab your popcorn. This is going to be interesting.
