The Republican Establishment isn’t quite sure what to do about the popularity of Ron Paul.
“Paul’s kind of like a dangerous animal that needs to be treated with respect,” said a GOP consultant working for one of the 2012 candidates. “People underestimate him at their own peril.”
I’m not sure of the context of that quote, but I don’t think the consultant was talking about Ron Paul winning the nomination. Republicans are much more concerned about Ron Paul making an independent run for the presidency. They’re also worried about the prospect of Ron Paul commanding enough delegates to warrant a prominent speaking slot at the national convention. These twin considerations create a touchy situation where the Establishment would like to put a dent in Paul’s momentum to limit his take of delegates, but they don’t want to anger him enough that he either goes after Mitt Romney or splits the party to run on his own.
They keep telling themselves, and us, that Ron Paul won’t run as an independent because he’s concerned about his son’s career in the Senate and as a future presidential candidate. It’s beginning to sound like a threat, as if the Establishment is warning Rep. Paul that they’ll make his son’s life miserable if he hands the election to Obama. If that’s the message they’re trying to send, I don’t think it is going to be very effective.
I don’t think either Ron or Rand Paul have much loyalty to the GOP, and I don’t think either of them think the Establishment will be any kinder to Rand in the future than they are to Ron now. If Rep. Paul makes an independent bid, his son will presumably endorse him and campaign for him, and that could provide the rationale for stripping Rand of his committee assignments and/or his seniority (although he has so little seniority that it would hardly matter). But Rand Paul probably doesn’t care much about his committee assignments and they’d find themselves with one pissed off senator to contend with. We all know how much trouble one angry senator can produce.
So, the Establishment finds itself in a bit of a quandary. It doesn’t want the GOP brand to be associated with Ron Paul’s views on Israel or foreign policy in general or the War on Drugs or the surveillance state or the Civil Rights Act of 1964 or how fast blacks can run or torture or a variety of other things. They especially don’t want him expressing those views in a high visibility slot at the National Convention. But they also don’t want him to go after their nominee, or to actually become an independent candidate.
I hope this problem doesn’t go away. I hope it gets much, much worse.
