Contrary to Michael Tomasky, any political prognosticator worth his salt knows that Obama is likely to finish with about 330 electoral votes. There are still some things that will change (at least, temporarily) the presidential contest. Romney will announce his running mate, and he’ll probably get a bump in the polls out of it. Then they’ll have the Republican Convention, which should give Romney another bump. If Romney is going to have any chance, he needs to be leading in the polls by the time the Democrats convene in Charlotte. You may remember that McCain did briefly break into the lead in the aftermath of his selection of Palin and their convention in Minneapolis.
But, this year, the Democratic Convention follows the Republican one. It should basically cancel out whatever the GOP was able to accomplish. Then we’ll have the debates. In my experience, the debates matter very little, and they are generally “won” by whomever is more likable. I see the prospect of Romney changing the game in his favor at the debates to be highly unlikely. If Gore and Kerry couldn’t do it against Bush, then it probably cannot be done.
I don’t see anything really changing the dynamics of the race that we see right now. Nate Silver has Obama winning at a 71% probability. He’s still projecting that 330 votes is the (by far) most likely outcome.
Personally, I think there is a much better chance for the election’s dynamics to turn against Mitt, rather then toward him. It’s much easier to screw up the choice of running mate than to make it work for you. It’s much more likely that GOP enthusiasm will evaporate as Romney fails to break through than that the GOP base will get more fired up to vote. It’s more likely that something damaging will emerge about the secretive Romney than that we’ll learn anything new about the president. It’s more likely that Romney will come off as a dick during the debates than that he will charm the pants off undecided voters.
It’s more likely that Obama will win Missouri or Arizona or Montana than it is that Romney will win Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
Maybe some liberals don’t want to jinx things. But I don’t care. My job, as I see it, it to tell people what is going to happen. Obama is going to kick Mitt Romney’s ass.
