Larry Sabato takes an objective look at the state of play in upcoming Virginia elections for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Right now, a clean sweep for the Democrats is looking quite possible, with only the attorney general slot rated as a toss-up. Terry McAuliffe has a consistent and significant lead in the polls and E.W. Jackson is a hopeless loon. Incumbent Governor Bob McDonnell’s legal troubles are also dragging the GOP ticket down, and Sabato paints some interesting scenarios if McDonnell is indicted:
What happens if McDonnell is indicted? There will be a strong push to have him resign, and some Republican officeholders have quietly made it known they will support such a move. If McDonnell gives into the pressure, then Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) will become the interim governor. One might think that a new, clean Republican governor would help Cuccinelli’s prospects. Yet Bolling despises Cuccinelli and deeply resents being pushed aside for the Republican nomination by the attorney general.
If he becomes governor, Bolling will have three options: He can endorse McAuliffe outright (there have been friendly words and gestures between the two), he can remain neutral (which also helps McAuliffe), or he can give his open or covert assent to a gubernatorial write-in effort. Chuckle all you like, but Bolling is much easier to spell than Murkowski, and both McAuliffe and Cuccinelli have lousy favorability ratings. Any such effort would have to be well funded, and Bolling would have to make clear he would serve if elected. Disproportionately, a Bolling write-in campaign would likely help Cuccinelli by draining many anti-Cuccinelli votes from McAuliffe; this is a key reason why Bolling might not do it.
The mention of “Murkowski” refers to Alaskan U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski who lost the Republican nomination to a crazy tea bagger but won reelection in the general election as a write-in candidate. As to Sabato’s last point, that a Bolling write-in campaign would mainly drain votes from McAuliffe, I am not so sure about that. Whenever two Republicans are on the ballot against one Democrat, I like the odds. It’s true that a lot of Bolling’s strongest supporters are going to back McAuliffe out of spite, but a lot of disenchanted Republicans would bite the bullet and vote for the Cooch rather than vote for Bill Clinton’s smarmy bag man.
