When Bob Menendez won reelection to the U.S. Senate in 2012, over three million people participated. Last night, Cory Booker won a seat in the Senate in an election in which only 1.2 million people participated. The drop-off in turnout was due to a variety of factors, including that Governor Christie scheduled the vote on a Wednesday, a day of the week that no New Jersey citizen has ever voted on before. It’s a simple, sad, fact of life that it is harder to get Democratic voters to the polls than Republican voters. Democratic voters are younger and more economically stressed than Republican voters, and less in the habit and less blessed with free time needed to vote. So, the National Review can crow all they want about the fact that Cory Booker only won his election by 11 points, but he was operating in deliberately-designed adverse conditions that will never be repeated. My guess is that Cory Booker will henceforth outperform Bob Menendez in their Senate elections for the simple reason that he is more charismatic and likable.
The truth is that Steve Lonegan didn’t even come close to winning last night’s election. Cory Booker won 13 out of New Jersey’s 22 counties, including all the most populous ones.
Another truth is that Republicans can win in New Jersey, as Governor Christie is likely to prove in a couple of weeks. But they can’t win as Tea Party Republicans. In the Garden State, style seems to be more important than substance, and Christie’s combative style sells pretty well there. But so does his cooperation with the president. If Christie wins reelection, it will be less about the economy, which sucks in New Jersey, than about his handling of the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. That was when he linked arms with the president and praised the federal government’s efforts to provide relief.
So, if the GOP is looking to learn some lessons, those lessons are staring them straight in the face.
