Personally, I think Jeb Bush has one shot at being the president of the United States, and that’s if he doesn’t run in 2016, a Democrat wins that election and does very poorly, and then Jeb challenges that Democrat in 2020. Jeb will be 67 in 2020, still young enough to serve two terms. By 2024, he’ll be pushing the limits.
The former Florida governor may be having his moment, but he has many more reasons not to run in 2016 than he has to make the plunge.
The most obvious argument against running is that the Democrats are likely to nominate Hillary Clinton who will bring unusual strengths to the contest.
Longtime readers know that I am not a Clintonista and that I vehemently opposed her winning the nomination in 2008. But this isn’t about me. It’s about Jeb Bush, and what I believe is in Jeb Bush’s interests. In truth, I don’t give a rat’s ass about Jeb Bush’s interests; I’m only interested in the politics.
Hillary has strengths and weaknesses, but her strengths are not your garden variety. For sheer experience on the international stage, we’ve never had a candidate that can match her: served on the board of Wal-Mart, First Lady of Arkansas, First Lady of the United States, U.S. Senator from New York, and Secretary of State. Jeb Bush’s experiences (in the corporate world, as the son of Poppy Bush, and as governor of Florida) come closer than other Republican, but it’s really not a close comparison.
Jeb can’t match Hillary on the domestic front, either. Few Americans have more experience or understanding of health care from both a policy issue and a political circus than Hillary. She’s spent the last 21 years engaged in Congress to one degree or another. Jeb has never served in DC.
While there is an outspoken left in this country that will resist a Clinton restoration, over 80% of registered Democrats want Hillary to run. She has a unified party. Jeb Bush has a smoking husk.
You can basically go down the line listing Jeb’s unique strengths, and you’ll find that Hillary matches them (corporate support) or easily surpasses them (who’d you rather have as a surrogate, the Big Dog or Dubya?).
So, if I’m Jeb, I’m thinking that it won’t do me or my family any good to run in 2016 because I’ll lose. And the Bush family doesn’t need to lose to the Clintons for a second time. That’s not going to do anything for their legacy.
But 2020 could be a different story. For one thing, as long as the GOP keeps pushing through Establishment candidates (Dole, McCain, Romney, Jeb) that the base hates and then losing, the right will never figure out that unhinged conservatism is not the answer. The modern GOP needs an Eisenhower, not a Goldwater. If Jeb wants to be Eisenhower, he needs to let the base try Huckabee in 2016 or something and find out what happens. Then they might be able to give Jebby a try.
Also, if the Democrats win in 2016, they’ll have been in power by 2020 for as long as the Gipper and Poppy were when the Clintons came to power. Fatigue could set in and the timing could work out right.
Lastly, the more time Jeb can put between his campaign and his brother’s disastrous presidency, the more our country’s skill at amnesia will work in his favor.
If he works it right and beats Hillary in 2020 and goes on to serve two terms, we’ll be able to look back and say that between 1981 and 2029, the only years that a Bush or a Clinton wasn’t president or vice-president was during the Obama Era. And Hillary was Secretary of State for half of that.
