The lastest poll numbers out of Michigan show that the race is too close to call, but also that the late movement is all toward Romney. Michigan does not have party registration, which means that Democrats and Independents do not have to jump through any hoops to vote in the Republican primary. Markos Moulitsas has recommended that Michigan Democrats show up to vote for Mitt Romney on the theory that a Romney win will deny McCain a clear path to the nomination. (As an aside, a specious complaint has been filed against Moulitsas with the Michigan Attorney General). General election polling shows that McCain is the Republicans’ strongest potential candidate, while Romney and Huckabee are extremely weak. McCain’s strong victory in New Hampshire has catapulted him into the lead in South Carolina, so we can’t expect Huckabee to undo McCain’s momentum if McCain wins tonight’s primary.
Turnout is expected to be light and an early morning snow won’t help matters. The Democratic primary has been rendered virtually meaningless because all the candidates, save Clinton and Dodd, took their names off the ballot and the DNC has promised not to seat the delegates. The DNC will, of course, seat the delegates unless they are decisive to the outcome of the nomination. If they are decisive, look to the Clintons to try to have those delegates seated, and look to Obama and Edwards to try to deny that effort. For this reason, it is in the interests of the non-Clinton supporting Democrats to show up and vote for ‘uncommitted’ which is an option on the ballot. An uncommitted delegate could still choose to go to Clinton, but they won’t be pledged to her. Some have suggested voting for Dodd instead, but Dodd will not likely reach 15%, or, at least, he seems less likely to reach 15% than ‘uncommitted’. Therefore, it is a better bet to vote ‘uncommitted’ if you want to deny the Clintons an unfair advantage that they have no right to enjoy just because they refused to follow along and take her name off the ballot.
Or just go vote for Romney. Someone want to sue me for saying that? I could use the publicity.
A Romney victory will stem McCain’s momentum and muck up the works in the GOP contest, but it will also be just what the doctor ordered for Rudy Giuliani, whose whole strategy depends on the race getting to Florida with no clear frontrunner.
Whatever you do, have fun.
