Overall, based on 6/30/15 FEC filing, I’d say his team is ticking off all the right boxes.
He ended the quarter with $12 million in cash which in comparison with the other campaigns, other than Clinton’s, is very good. From a cost perspective, one negative may be the high percentage of contributions that are filtered through Act Blue. On the plus side, it may be more convenient for donors and the money gets to his campaign quickly. On the minus side, there are not insignificant “merchant fees.”
On a related note, and before continuing with an assessment of his receipts and spending) is the Bernie Sanders Store. It’s straightforward and basic T-shirts, mugs, buttons, bumper stickers, and signs. One attractive (enough) and simple design in two different color styles. The Hillary Clinton Shop has a wider variety of stuff. Unattractive unless one likes her H-arrow logo. (Difficult for me to believe that anyone wants a “Grillery Spatula” or faux crosstich pillow, but I pretty much loathe this sort of campaign or corporate promo junk.) The major difference between the two stores is the price. A Sanders’ T-shirt is $15 and the price of Hillary apparel starts at $25.
Receipt disclosures inform us that more than 250,000 people have donated to his campaign. The bulk of the donations were less than $200. Scrolling through the itemized donations, few are for $500 or more. Maxi $2,700 donations are few and far between. (They are numerous and prevalent in Hillary’s itemized donations.) It’s not possible to determine if these early donors have dug as deep as they are capable of during this election cycle to jumpstart Sanders’ campaign. Or it reflects their personal financial limitations during the second quarter. And/or being cautious until they can see how viable Sanders can become with Democratic Party primary voters and how well he can run a campaign. What makes this more like Dean’s 2004 campaign than Obama’s 2008 is that Sanders will not be getting big money support from Wall St. and other industries. It’s more or less the little people that he is dependent on. Many of whom still recall the significant amount of dollars from little people that seemingly disappeared in Howard Dean’s campaign. Thus, those who support Sanders would be wise to watch how their dollars are being deployed.
So, what’s to like in the disbursement section of Sanders’ FEC filing? People. In Iowa, NH, SC and a few other states in addition to the VT headquarter offices. More hires, physical location offices, and equipment are essential to get in place during the next quarter.
Possibly most impressive is that out of the $3 million in expenditures, $1.265 million was for “Digital Consulting & Ad Buy.” If his team has begun the process of placing TV “ad buy” orders, this demonstrates they know what they’re doing. Getting this in place as early as possible both costs less and can lock in the better airtime slots. (Of course, the quality of the ads is the most important key in effective TV advertising.)
Assuming that Sanders is attracting excellent talent and can easily scale up his operation to the level required to get through Super Tuesday in solid enough shape that he’s a real contender, what are the financial markers that should be seen in the next two quarters?
To assess that requires making a few assumptions. 1) Will not accept federal matching funds. Two reasons, the in-state and total primary limitations may be too constraining and a lag time between securing the nomination and the DNC convention can hobble a campaign. (While both conventions are scheduled for the end of July as they were in 2000, Gore was hurt by the early wrap up of the primary.) 2) Monthly operational costs not dedicated to specific primary/caucus efforts will be $2.5 million/month. 3) Savvy media buys like we’ve never seen before. 50/50 spending ratio for ground and ad buys in IA, NH, and SC.
The 2016 primary schedule is daunting but less so than it was in 2008. It does mean that most of the ducks through March have to be in their rows by 12/31/15. Putting a price tag on that:
- $22.5 million for Operation Central budget July through March
- $8 million Iowa
- $6 million New Hampshire
- $7 million South Carolina
- $4 million Nevada
- $15 million — half the cost of Super Tuesday
Total $55.5 million. Round up to $60 million to include $4.5 million contingency fund.
With 6/30 cash on hand of $12 million, not less than $48 million must be raised during the next six months. Gonna need a lot more donors. Tall order, but doable. Over half a million people donated to Howard Dean. Sanders needs to do somewhat better than that. And more donors contributing smaller amounts would be more robust than fewer donors making larger contributions. Either way, his campaign will need to generate $8 million/month for him to be competitive.
Last item. Team Sanders has released a five minute introductory video. The format is conventional. Structurally not different from what we’ve seen countless times from candidates for state and federal offices. Yet, it does (mostly) avoid the saccharine tone, imagery, and music that we’re accustomed to seeing and that make them so boring. It’s well done and clearly put together by people that know what they’re doing. And without much effort could be chopped up into ten effective thirty second ads. I’d still prefer that his campaign get more creative and quirky to capture more attention with each TV spot. Will have to maximize quality because the competition has the money to buy quantity.
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Stay tuned.
Update: Bernie Sanders — July 29, 2015 — Nationwide Meet-Up
Glendale, CA
Everyone, we are pleased to announce that we have secured a new location for our July 29th Organizing Meeting! As many of you know, we began planning this event with the expected turnout of around 30 people. We now have approximately 180 people ready to make July 29th the beginning of a major turning point in US history! Bernie has over 2,500 confirmed locations and 80,000+ RSVPs; July 29th will mark the beginning of a massive mobilization of the citizenry to take our country back.
Americans for Bernie Sanders
Boston, MAOur Mission: To transform America and American politicsOur Goal: To get Bernie Sanders elected President. Phase One: To get as many Progressives elected as possible in 2016 Phase Two: To double the number of Progressives elected to Congress in 2018
Didn’t expect to see this level of organization and enthusiasm among volunteers quite this early. Team Sanders is running ahead of the curve.
Update #2
NYTimes Stung in 2008, Hillary Clinton Builds a Formidable Team in Iowa
…
Ms. Mueller, who at 24 is already a disciplined veteran of political campaigns in Virginia, New York and Arkansas, is one of Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 47 paid organizers in Iowa, a sizable and growing army. The formidable infrastructure, larger than any other candidate’s for either party in Iowa, shows Mrs. Clinton’s determination not to leave anything to chance in the state with the first nominating contest, where she suffered a bruising setback in her last presidential run.…
“One of the things that I learned last time is it’s organize, organize, organize,” Mrs. Clinton said in a recent interview with CNN. “And you’ve got to get people committed, and then they will follow through, and then you bring more people.”
Clinton campaign claims that it in Iowa it has ten field offices and 7,000 volunteers, and the house party, grassroots volunteer operations are in full swing.
At a recent house party in a former Grange hall in Newton, which Mrs. Clinton did not attend, about 45 Democrats and independents were asked to sign commitment cards to caucus for Mrs. Clinton, or to check boxes indicating that they would volunteer to “Knock on doors!” or “Be a captain!”
Slight wrinkle:
Many at the Clinton house party in Newton said Mr. Sanders was the candidate they were most drawn to. “I like everything he says,” said Dean Lane, who farms 1,800 acres of corn and soybeans.
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Few of the 45 in attendance signed the Clinton commitment cards or said they were ready to volunteer for her.
Manufacturing enthusiasm isn’t easy.
