Elections are complicated and multi-factorial. But come Wednesday morning everybody has a simple explanation for their wins or losses. Usually nothing more than beating whatever drum they’ve been beating all along. And nobody can really prove diddly-squat.
Were the 2014 mid-term elections predominately local or national? National according to the GOP and all the Democratic candidates that did their best to run from Obama. But is there evidence for that in the gubernatorial elections?
First consider those incumbent governors w/o a viable opponent (polling number is RCP average):
CA – Brown (D) +18.5; actual +17.6
MN – Dayton (I) +7; actual +5.6
NV – Sandoval (R) +25; actual +47
NM – Martinez (R) +13.3; actual +14.6
NY – Cuomo (D) + 23.3; actual +13.4
OR – Kitzhaber (D) +7.7; actual 5.1
Both Republican governors added to their polling leads and all four Democrats lost ground. On the west coast, less than a point for Brown, but Kitzhaber lost 2.6 points. Except late in the race there was an issue with Kitzhaber’s fiancee; so, it’s difficult not to see his drop as anything but a local matter. NY? Record low voter turnout. There didn’t seem to be any GOP wave in MN; so, Dayton’s drop is undefined.
So, how did incumbent Democratic governors fare?
CO – Hickenlooper (I) +0.5; actual +2.9
CT – Malloy (I) +1.7; actual +2.5
IL – Quinn (I) +0.8; actual -4.8
NH – Hassan (I) +3.5; actual +5.2
Somewhat more as would be expected in close races for all but Quinn, a slight uptick at the very end.
Open gubernatorial slots with an incumbent Democratic governor:
AR – Ross -8; actual -13.9
MA – Coakley -3.7; actual -1.9
MD – Brown ++; actual -4.7
RI – Raimondo +4; actual 4.5 (won w/40.8%; Ind 20%)
Coakley and Raimondo got an incumbent party uptick. But Ross and Brown lost 5.9 or more points.
Republican Incumbents (w/viable opponents):
AK – Walker +1.2; actual +1.4; Parnell (I)
FL – Christ +0.6; actual -1.1; Scott (I)
GA – Carter -4.6; actual -8; Deal (I)
KS – Davis +2; actual -3.9; Brownback (I)
ME – Michaud -1.4; actual -4.9; LePage (I) (Michaud led w/Cutler <10%; Cutler final 8.4%)
MI – Schauer -2.0; actual – 4.2 Snyder (I)
PA – Wolf +11; actual 9.8; Corbett (I)
WI- Burke -2.2; actual -5.7; Walker (I)
Other than Parnell – AK, all of the Republican incumbent governors got that uptick. Regardless of whether they were projected to win or lose. Corbett got the least, 1.2% and Brownback got the most, 5.9%.
Sure looks like a GOP wave – but how did they do that? None of the Democratic governors or candidates got anywhere near Obama. And several of the outgoing Democratic governors are leaving with high marks, and of the incumbents, the worst are the Republicans and only two of those lost.
Also consider that an electoral wave cuts below the top of the ballot. The open Democratic Senate seat in MI was won by the Democrat Peters by over 13%. And the MN incumbent Democratic Senator, Franken, won by 10.3% (RCP avg. 10%). OTOH, the “very popular” VA Democratic Senator barely squeaked out a win by 0.8% against Ed (freaking) Gillespie. (Gotta love VA voters for busting the chops of their “very popular Senators” who are looking to move up to POTUS or VP.)
There is something that all but one of the Democratic gubernatorial losers have in common. Also shared by two winners that had final upticks and three winners (all of whom were comfortably ahead) that had final downticks. But not shared by the other four winners. Democratic gubernatorial candidates that nationalized their elections didn’t fare well. Difficult to see how they could have done worse by hugging Obama. Not that anyone seems to have noticed this.
