Iran Scan

Even Washington foreign-policy analysts seem to expect that the election will do nothing but confirm that the Iranian reformist movement has burnt its fuel and no longer presents a plausible vehicle for political change.

But if you look carefully, the election does display clear signs of gradual but radical change. In fact, it will probably be the most open and transparent election Iran has ever seen. The internet plays a major role: this is the first time that most of the major candidates (except the oldest ones) have their own active websites. One of them, Mostafa Moeen, even has a weblog which he personally updates everyday.

This election is a unique occasion to explore the internal dimensions of Iranian politics with the internet providing an unprecedented window on Iranian political culture. As such, openDemocracy has invited some of the most respected journalists and bloggers in Tehran, Toronto, Washington DC and California to observe the elections over the next weeks in a weblog called Iran Scan 1384 (in the Persian calendar, 2005 is 1384).

All roads lead to Iran as the next big national security and foreign-policy focus for the Bush administration. For Iranians, this is a crucial point in history to be communicating with each other and the outside world. They have the opportunity to bust stereotypes and create greater understanding of the internal dynamics of the country.

Iran is no fairy tale. Many bloggers, journalists and activists in Iran are still in jail or under threat. Hundreds of political and non-political websites (such as Orkut, a popular social networking site) are filtered within the Islamic Republic, making them inaccessible. In the past eight years dozens of newspapers have been shut down by the judiciary. A simple weblog like Iran Scan 1384 would most likely be labelled a ?spying outlet?, especially as it is hosted by a London-based organisation (Iranians are obsessed with conspiracy theories about the British). Several of the weblog?s authors already fear travelling to Iran.

By contrast, over 75,000 people regularly write weblogs in Iran, and the majority of them belong to the under 30s demographic. There are 70 million people in Iran, and 70% of them are under 30. This huge generation is growing more and more dissatisfied, and it is difficult for the government to keep up previous levels of repression. On a practical level, the money and manpower needed to close down dance parties and control the influx of music, fashion and drugs doesn?t make it a sustainable enterprise.

In 2003 it was estimated that Persian was the fourth most popular blogging language. This explosion in internet traffic (there are between four and five million internet users in Iran) has made the craving for social and political freedoms even stronger. Journalists who are silenced in newspapers quickly find an audience for their writing in blogs or news websites.

It is precisely because so many of these affluent young people are online, that the candidates are reaching out to them on the web. So far, a dozen news websites have appeared in direct or subtle support of candidates in the pre-election period. They function as the unofficial public-relations machinery of the candidates, especially in the recent campaign wars.

The main newspapers would never dare author the kind of views that are expressed on these sites but they have no problem quoting them. In this way tough censorship rules are being circumvented and an unprecedented amount of information is available to the public.