I wouldn’t use a Rasmussen poll to wipe myself, but there is one bit of good news in their polling of Harry Reid’s chances for reelection. It’s this:
From the pollster’s analysis: “Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Nevada voters say they have followed news reports about Reid’s comments about Obama, including 55% who have followed very closely. But his bigger problem appears to be his championing of a health care plan that remains unpopular in his home state.”
I don’t think the health care bill will be much of a topic in November (provided it passes). There will be elements of the bill that are popular and elements that are unpopular, but the unpopular bits will not have kicked in yet by November, while many of the popular elements will have. Either way, the issues that will be at the forefront of the electorate’s mind are bound to be different from what they are right now.
So, if what’s weighing Reid down right now the most is his high profile role in leading the health care fight, he doesn’t have to worry too much about that carrying over and hurting him in the fall. In fact, it’s likely to be a net positive for him by then.
The recent controversy about his comments about Obama isn’t helpful, but the Republicans aren’t going to win a debate over who is more concerned and responsive to the needs and desires of the African-American community. I suspect this controversy will have next to zero impact on the November election.
I think the problem Reid has is probably something that is shared with all other elected officials in Nevada. Their economy is terrible and they are suffering through one of the worst foreclosure crises in the country. People are hurting and they are blaming incumbents of both parties. Reid’s other problem is not something he can control. As the Majority Leader, he is the face of the Democratic Party, and that motivates his opponents to a higher degree than what an average senator faces. So, he has a highly motivated opposition, an anti-incumbent mood, and an inability to cast strategic votes against his party to kind of soften the partisan edges. He’s also not the greatest retail politician. Add it all up, and he’s very vulnerable. But he’s also got a big money advantage, the support of labor in a state where that really matters, ties to the Mormon community that Republicans need to win state-wide elections, and the seniority and power that no prospective backbencher from the minority can hope to match.
His poll numbers, I predict, are as low as they are going to go. The question is whether he can make a comeback in popularity so that he doesn’t have to spend all his money destroying his eventual opponent to get to a point where he has a chance. That’s the situation Jon Corzine found himself in, and he couldn’t get over the hump. But Corzine’s problems were deeper, more substantive, and completely topical at the time of the election. Reid has more reason for hope.
