With the exception of her tired complaints about liberal media bias, I largely agree with Myra Adam’s analysis about why Hillary Clinton will be elected president in 2016, albeit with the same caveats that Ms. Adams provides.
Basically, it comes down to the fact that no one on either side of the aisle can beat her. You can add to that that it is almost inconceivable at this point that any Republican could get 270 electoral votes against any Democrat.
Perhaps the most interesting of Ms. Adams’ observations is about the role of age and how it will probably help Hillary Clinton much more than it hurts her. I hadn’t thought of the fact that Hillary’s age will help her do better with the elderly, particularly when she is attacked for being too old for the job.
There is also a regional advantage that Hillary brings to the table that cannot be matched by any other plausible Democratic contender. Her husband twice won Arkansas and West Virginia. While times have changed, the Clintons are simply much more popular in Appalachia and parts of the South than any other prominent Democrats. And, unlike your typical Blue Dogs, they don’t win support through bashing the left but simply by being who they are. The Clintons have enough support in places like southern Ohio that she won’t even need to campaign in the Buckeye State. It simply won’t be competitive.
The best argument for Hillary’s campaign is that she is the only candidate who could really roll up the score and win 40 states. And the left needs a victory that big to break the impasse in Washington. Reelecting Obama was a great victory, but the benefit is primarily defensive in nature. Most of what we gained is in what we prevented from happening. That’s not a slap at Obama or praise of Hillary; it’s just a fact that the 2012 victory was not big enough. Another relatively close election will leave us in a similar situation.
You might argue that Clinton is overrated and that she ran a bad campaign in 2008. To some degree, I would agree on both points, although I think she actually ran a strong campaign that was simply outsmarted from the start. She won’t be facing anyone as strong as President Obama, and she’ll be the beneficiary of much of his talented staff and trained volunteers.
There is certainly room on Hillary’s left for a progressive challenger, and I would be surprised if one doesn’t emerge and get some real energy. I know I will be very interested in that effort because most of the concerns I had about a Clinton restoration in 2008 will remain concerns in 2016. But I can’t predict a successful effort.
If her health and ambition hold up, the only question will be about the size of her victory and what she can do with it.
