Personally, I think Jeb Bush could be the Republican Party’s 2016 nominee for the same reason that Mitt Romney was their 2012 nominee. Basically, it’s because, “are you kidding me?”, no one else is remotely plausible and also acceptable to the Republican Establishment. There are people who could catch fire with the base but repel the monied folks, and there are people who would be acceptable to the monied folks but would appall the base. Jeb Bush comes the closest to being able to bridge the difference.
I hear mention of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and he does offer a possible consensus choice, but he’s surrounded by people who have ethical and legal problems. People can raise all manner of objections to Jeb, but the same thing was true of Romney. The thing is, you can’t beat the Establishment with Rick Santorum, no matter how hard you try. If you want an insurgent campaign, you need star power and a way to finance it. Maybe some billionaire can carry the next Herman Cain or Newt Gingrich the next time around, but it didn’t work last time for the simple reason that everyone could see that all the alternatives to Romney were ludicrous.
To me, there are three possibilities.
1. The Republicans rally around a candidate that the base wants but who is fatally flawed either because they’re crazy or because they represent Louisiana or some other Deep South state.
2. The Republicans nominate someone with surface plausibility and credentials, but who can no more break away from unpopular conservative ideology than Mitt Romney was able to do.
3. The Republicans nominate Jeb Bush and he runs to the left of his brother.
None of these possibilities offer much promise, but the third one would at least put the GOP in position to win if some confluence of events conspires against the Democrats.
Could Jeb actually get the nomination?
Absolutely, because of the “are you kidding me?” factor. It’s the exact same reason that Romney won, and McCain, too, for that matter.
