The Washington Post is reporting that the constitutional negotiations in Iraq have finally failed. No surprise.
If the constitution passes the referendum, a new, full-term assembly would be elected by Dec. 15. But if voters reject it, the December election would be for an assembly that would serve just one year and would try again to frame an acceptable constitution — a process that, with Iraq’s already inflamed sectarian and ethnic tensions, would put great stress on the country’s fragile government-building effort.
I believe this signals a turning point almost as significant as Tet. The difference is that the American public’s reaction to Tet was overblown and this will be underblown. Tet shocked America because we had been led to believe the opposition had no ability to launch such a coordinated attack. But Tet actually was a tactical blunder by the NVA. In this case, America will not understand the significance of the breakdown of negotiations until months later. Initial reaction will not be shock. But the prospects for a decent outcome in Iraq just died their official death. Someday the historians will mark August 28th, 2005 as the the day that broke the camel’s back.
Essentially, this result means that the constitution will almost certainly be rejected. The insurgency will begin to grow in strength. We will hold off giving heavy equipment to the new Iraqi army out of fear it will be turned against us, and lack of domestic support combined with manpower problems for the military will force Congress’s hands.
In Vietnam years, we are approaching 1972.
