Some quick thoughts about tonight:
- Debates allow candidates in crisis to change the subject. The closest analogy I can think of to this debate is the ’92 Democratic Primary debate in New Hampshire. Held shortly after Clinton’s draft letter was released, it allowed him to change the subject. It may give Trump that chance depending on how it is handled.
- Cooler is better in Town Halls. With apologies to Marshall McCluen, talking directory to voters, addressing them respectfully and in an even tone is critical in town halls. Hillary is good at these – I suspect she will do well.
- Debates can re-inforce already existing perceptions about candidates. In 1988 perceptions about Dukakis as weak came to light in a debate question about Kitty Dukakis and rape. It re-inforced the pre-existing narrative. It cost him a whopping 10 points in the next week.
- But debates can change perceptions. In 1984 Reagan’s first debate, Reagan appeared disorientated and lost. His second debate, far better, put that perception to rest.
There is so much focus on Trump tonight that it affords him an opportunity to show the “New Trump”.
I doubt he will take it. This will be the final nail in the coffin, and he will be done 10-12 in a week.
Not the post debate bounce
I show a 6 point lead
Clinton expanding the playing field in AZ. Trouble in the Midwest,but in a better position than Obama at this point.
