I wonder how different things might have been if back in 1979 the Washington Post had run editorials calling for the U.S. to break ties with the Shah of Iran. Would we have been condemned to thirty-two years of implacable hostility, mutual terrorism, and lack of trade? Would real democracy with respect for human rights have taken root in Teheran? If we had supported the legitimate aspirations of the Iranian people would they have turned to rule by clerics and adopted a policy of exporting terrorism and armed resistance to U.S. interests?
Or, would we have lacked the credibility to turn on a dime and disown our sponsorship and responsibility for the Shah’s police state?
These questions are unanswerable, but it is interesting to see how anxious and incoherent the reaction in Washington is to the developments in Egypt. Some, including John Kerry, are warning us that Egypt may come under the influence of the Muslim brotherhood. Meanwhile, the Center for American Progress is completely sanguine about such a possibility, as if the Muslim Brotherhood is a force for moderation that shouldn’t concern us at all. They may rue the day that were so dismissive. On the other hand, they may be completely vindicated. Personally, I think the only really stupid analysis in a situation like this is analysis that provides any strong degree of certainty.
If Mubarak’s regime falls, there is no telling what will replace it, or how long Egypt might experience instability and/or lawlessness. No one knows how the next government will position itself with its neighbors, Europe, or America. We don’t even know if they’ll actually win their human rights and a representative government. Or, if they do, whether or not it will erode into something as lame as Iranian democracy.
We may find that these revolutions will spread to other places, from U.S.-aligned emirates on the Persian Gulf to major client-states like Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
This could be a fantastic development and a birth of freedom reminiscent of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the emancipation of Eastern Europe. But we should neither assume such a happy outcome, nor think that we will find these new democracies to be natural allies.
Can the U.S. pivot from supporting stability and the status quo to supporting the legitimate aspirations of the Arab world, even when those aspirations are hostile to our interests?
Maybe we could do that with wise leadership and a loyal opposition. But can we do this in a country with a disloyal opposition that is rabidly anti-Muslim?
I’m pretty scared right now. I gotta tell ya.
