Conservative Christians take a look at the current crop of Republican presidential contenders and they feel unrepresented. James Dobson says that Fred Thompson is not a Christian. Obviously, Mitt Romney is not a Christian. And Rudolph Guiliani is pro-choice. This leads conservative Christians to say things like this:
“I understand the frustration we all feel, but for me the two nightmares are a Giuliani-versus-Hillary race, and Hillary taking the oath of office,” said Mr. [Gary] Bauer, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2000. “We should be very careful not to slice up candidates we may turn to and ask our voter to get behind.”
Bauer is upset that Dobson is saying Fred Thompson is not a Christian. The thing is, Fred Thompson doesn’t go to church and only plays at being a Christian when he is running for office. Dobson is correct. But the other point that Bauer makes is more interesting. Is it really a nightmare for conservative Christians if Rudy Guiliani wins the nomination and then loses the general election?
I think they have it backwards. The GOP has almost no chance of winning the White House in 2008. In the cyclical tide of America’s two-party electoral system, the GOP is clearly in ebb. If we posit that the Republicans are going to lose, what better outcome for conservative Christians could there be than one in which a pro-choice candidate takes the drubbing?
Maybe this will be clearer if we imagine what a Guiliani victory would look like. As we survey the national landscape, we will notice that Chris Shays (CT-04) is the only remaining Republican congressperson in New England. Republicans are losing seats from the mid-Atlantic to the upper Midwest, to the plains state of Kansas. A closer look will reveal that the GOP has lost its grip on the suburbs (for example, surrounding Philadelphia). These voters remain hostile to high taxes and government handouts, but they are sick to death of people like Gary Bauer. If Guiliani wins, he will win by carrying these suburbs.
Guiliani’s roadmap to 270 electoral votes includes states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, and Wisconsin. If he succeeds he will do so by going beyond the southern strategy. A Guiliani presidency, filled with his Brooklyn goons, is not going to have much use for people like Gary Bauer.
But if Guiliani loses, the conservative Christians can put all the blame on Rudy’s lack of morality. They can argue that the GOP tried to run a pro-choice, pro-gay rights candidate and they lost.
It seems to me that the best thing for the conservative Christian movement, short of a Sam Brownback upset win, would be a Guiliani loss.
