Six things that persuade people to support a candidate
1. the candidate is on my side
2. the candidate believes in something other than him/herself
3. the candidate is a strong and effective leader
4. it’s easy to make an emotional connection with the candidate
5. the candidate has integrity
6. the candidate is inspiring
This is Campaign Management 101.
So is this:
1. emphasize your comparative advantage
2. neutralize your opponent’s comparative advantage
See how Rove destroyed Kerry, below the fold.
Kerry and Edwards used economic and family issues to appeal to the average person. They talked about two Americas, one with good schools and health care, and one without. They tried to portray Bush as on the side of corporations, not on the side of the people.
In a slumping economy, with rising health care costs, this was very effective. To counter it, Rove emphasized how different Kerry was from the average joe. He’s French. He went to fancy schools. He’s an elitist, his wife is foreign, and strong-willed. He’s from Massachusetts. He windsurfs. By painting Kerry this way, they made people feel like Kerry wasn’t a regular guy. He wasn’t on the side of the regular guy.
This neutralized Kerry’s advantage on substance.
The next step was to make people believe that Kerry didn’t believe in anything other than himself. Kerry provided the ammunition by refusing to forcefully recant his vote authorizing the Iraq invasion. Painting your opponent as a flip-flopper is the best way to make them look like they don’t believe in anything. It also makes them look indecisive, and it makes them look weak and ineffective. In short, it is the most effective tool in the campaign manager’s box. Kerry let himself be defined as a flip-flopper, and that was the single biggest reason he lost.
Meanwhile, Bush refused to admit mistakes, and stayed relentlessly on message. He was able to project himself as strong and decisive. He remained vulnerable on his effectiveness, and that is one reason the election was so close.
Bush also carefully cultivated his regular guy image to make it easy for people to identify with him. He spent countless hours at the ranch, clearing brush, wearing blue jeans, and riding around in a pick-up truck. Kerry’s handlers were unable to create a similarly convincing illusion.
When it came to questioning Kerry’s integrity, the flip-flopping did a lot of work. But it was the Swift Boat Veterans that really damaged him. By calling into question the truthfulness of Kerry’s recollections of his service, they made people question his integrity. They also neutralized Kerry’s comparative advantage as a veteran, over Bush’s record as a deserter.
On the last issue, neither candidate was remotely inspiring. That issue was was basically a wash.
Rove is not a genius. He just followed an age-old electoral playbook. Meanwhile, Kerry’s handlers played it too safe, and they were ineffective in neutralizing Bush’s advantage as a strong and decisive wartime leader.
