I’m modestly disappointed that Obama is only polling slightly better against Romney than he actually did against McCain. A dead heat in Arizona is about what I would expect, considering that McCain carried more votes in his home state than Romney will. Arizona and Missouri are the two McCain-carried states most likely to flip into the blue column this November. But this is the starting point. Obama’s car is fueled up and ready to blast out of the gate. Romney’s is loaded down with baggage, including that damned dog on the damn roof. It’s like Christie Brinkley vs. the Griswolds (the family from Vacation or the Supreme Court ruling).
I think it will take events outside of anyone’s control to prevent this race from steadily widening in Obama’s favor as the spring arrives and turns into summer. Arizona is even now. In two months, I expect it to be leaning-Dem. Obama has a seven-point national lead today. I expect it to be double-digits by June. This should be a very decisive election. The damage the Republicans have done with women is not something that can be repaired. Romney has completely alienated the Latino vote. The punditry of the country is appalled. Republican leaders are shocked.
And the Republicans may not even have a nominee for months. They could actually arrive at their convention without a nominee.
The economic news has been good, not great, lately. The stock market is at a high point. Things are going really well. I just wish I could relax. It’s like a heavyweight fight. No matter how badly the fighters are mismatched, men that large can deliver a surprise knockout blow. That’s what Romney’s fighting for now. He just wants a puncher’s chance. The thing is, presidential elections always go to the judge’s cards. Yeah, maybe that judge will be Antoniin Scalia, but I don’t think so. Not this time.
