Author: Jerome a Paris

You thought I was a pessimist? Not until you read this!

This diary is inspired by an insightful exchange by mstein in yesterday’s diary, where he had the following scenarios:

the worldwide economic imbalances have gotten so extreme that the eventual “reversion to the mean” cannot come with a “soft landing”.  The sensible but optimistic inflationist probably sees something like the 70’s, a pessimistic one sees another Weimar Germany.  The sensible but optimistic deflationist probably sees another 90’s Japan, the pessimist another Great Depression.

Let me make the pessimist case here, on the basis of the document we discussed and a few others from my archives.

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