As I write this, the announcement of results in Mississippi is less than 24 hours away. Barack Obama is expected to win, making his record 15-2 since Super Tuesday.
But once we get past Mississippi, Pennsylvania looms large on the horizon. It’s a tough state, and Obama’s opponent Hillary Clinton is favored to win that contest. Pundits have been saying that Obama needs to win one of the big states, to take something away from Hillary (Texas notwithstanding, I guess).
I have an idea how he can do it.
The genius of Obama’s campaign has so far been to contest every state, something Democrats have not done for far too long. The results are incontrovertible; more states than Clinton, more popular votes than Clinton, and a delegate lead that will be in all practical terms impossible to overcome.
And still the media soldiers on, pretending this race isn’t all over but the shouting.
It seems to me that if Obama can make significant headway in Pennsylvania, he can seriously dent Clinton’s possible delegate pickup, or even — dare we imagine it? — get more delegates than she does. Yeah, I know, it sounds impossible, and maybe it is, but here’s the best chance he has of doing so.
Obama currently has a pretty substantial war chest and more money is coming in all the time. I’m not saying he should spend all of it, but in my opinion he should . . . well, there are 69 counties in Pennsylvania, and I believe he should bring in organizers to every single one of them. Someone who lives in the area would be preferable, and undoubtedly you could find and train organizers in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and places like Erie and Scranton. Native Pennsylvanians would be second best; someone from State College going up to Smethport would probably be a bit more credible than a random outsider, but if necessary, I have little doubt that the campaign could find volunteers to come in, take training, and spread out around Pennsylvania, maybe getting a bit of a stipend or per diem for their trouble.
And what would these new organizers be doing?
Knocking on doors. Setting up house parties. Speaking to organizations. Coordinating volunteers. Standing out in the middle of the town square with a placard. Their job would be the same as any organizer’s anywhere — to spread the word about Barack Obama and his message of hope, and then get people out to the polls to vote for him.
Wouldn’t something like this be expensive? Maybe, but think of it this way. So far, as I said above, Obama has won with a strategy that puts fifty states in play. Now he needs to do the same thing, writ small, in Pennsylvania. For every 2% he can cut into Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania, that’s 3 more delegates he gains at the National Convention. (That’s rough math and not to be taken completely literally; but the more support his organizers can generate, the better he does in the vote. How much better, you can ask Chuck Todd to figure out.)
In fact, if he could cut down Hillary’s lead in the rural areas of the state, and maintain his own support in the urban areas (which would of course have their own set of organizers) — I suppose it’s not impossible he could win outright. Likely? Who knows, but isn’t it worth a few measly million to find out?
Then if he can do the same thing in Kentucky, in Indiana, in other states where Clinton is slated to do well . . . well, every delegate he generates is one more toward the magic number of 2025.
Could Clinton do the same thing? I suppose so, but she doesn’t have the message and she can’t raise money the way Obama can. The things she has going for her right at the moment are inertia, a willingness to win at any cost, and the realization that if she loses Pennsylvania or comes out of Pennsylvania with only a two or three delegate pickup, it’s all over. That makes her dangerous — but I think Obama is up for the task.
So since Obama’s advisors don’t have any idea who I am and probably wouldn’t notice me if they did, here’s hoping they come up with this idea on their own. Make every single county in Pennsylvania competitive. Blacken the sky over Pennsylvania with organizers. Make it happen! Yes we can!!
