Mike Cernovich is just some dude on Twitter with 125k followers, so I don’t want to make more out of this than is warranted, but his email to RNC chairman Reince Priebus does at least demonstrate how disavowing Donald Trump isn’t some panacea that can assuredly help the Republicans save the House of Representatives.
To be clear, Cernovich is following his leader. Here are the Tweets Donald Trump sent out this morning.
Despite winning the second debate in a landslide (every poll), it is hard to do well when Paul Ryan and others give zero support!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2016
Our very weak and ineffective leader, Paul Ryan, had a bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 11, 2016
Thinking about all this, called immediately to my mind some Bob Dylan lyrics from 1965.
Pointed threats, they bluff with scorn
Suicide remarks are torn
From the fool’s gold mouthpiece the hollow horn
Plays wasted words, proves to warn
That he not busy being born is busy dying
Temptation’s page flies out the door
You follow, find yourself at war
Watch waterfalls of pity roar
You feel to moan but unlike before
You discover that you’d just be one more
We can pity Paul Ryan if we’re so inclined. He does find himself in perhaps the most difficult position of any elected Republican because as Speaker of the House he needs to try to satisfy everyone and that’s not even remotely possible in his current situation. But it’s true, he is far from the only Republican crying.
Meanwhile, Trump and his minions bluff with scorn, issue suicide remarks from their hollow horn, and make clear that the Grand Old Party is busy dying.
The House Democrats have opened up a generic polling lead of seven points, but that lead grows against incumbents:
Fresh internal polls conducted by the DCCC — the House Democrats’ campaign arm — after the second presidential debate on Sunday night painted a grim picture for Republican lawmakers.
They show that Republicans — who started moving en masse against Trump after the revelations in the videotape — faced a backlash regardless of whether they continued to support Trump or not…
…While a generic ballot tests shows a Democrat up by 7 points over any Republican lawmaker, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s poll — conducted nationwide by the Global Strategy Group — shows the Democratic candidate has a 12-point edge if the Republican recently withdrew their support from Trump. If a Republican lawmaker continues to support Trump, the private polling shows they are at a similar 12-point deficit.
“Voters think not standing up to [Trump] and standing with him are the same thing,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Kelly Ward. “Voters blame all Republicans for creating this monster.”
“The only thing limiting us is our own budget and where opportunities exist in the battle field,” Ward said.
And it’s not only internal Democratic polling that shows this. The NBC/WSJ polling shows it, too.
Trump has plummeted to an 11-point deficit in a four-way matchup, and Democrats lead on the question of which party should control Congress by a seven-point margin, the highest since 2013.
But here’s another wrinkle that further complicates that bleak picture for the GOP: Despite the fact that Trump is now losing by double digits, fully two-thirds of Republicans say that others in their party should stick with the nominee. Just nine percent say that downballot Republicans should renounce their support of Trump, and 14 percent say they should call on Trump to quit. That’s a very, very tough place for Republicans to be right now.
So, how many people will show up to vote for Trump on election day but knowing he will lose feel inspired to vote against downticket Republicans who criticized or repudiated him? This is different than leaving the ballot line blank or voting for a third party protest candidate, although both of those actions will hurt as well. Actually casting a vote for the Democrat out of spite despite opposing them on the merits creates a double-whammy effect that counts as a two net-vote loss.
There’s also the post-election scenario to consider, where Republican House members who do survive have to immediately begin planning to stave off primary challengers from disgruntled Trumpistas who blame them for delivering a stab in the back.
It’s an ugly, ugly, ugly set of problems for Republican lawmakers.
Some of this was completely foreseeable, but I doubt anyone thought in the first years of the Obama administration that Glenn Beck would be essentially endorsing Hillary Clinton by the end of it. But Beck found out what Dylan was talking about.
For them that must obey authority
That they do not respect in any degree
Who despise their jobs, their destinies
Speak jealously of them that are free
Cultivate their flowers to be
Nothing more than something they invest in
While some on principles baptized
To strict party platform ties
Social clubs in drag disguise
Outsiders they can freely criticize
Tell nothing except who to idolize
And then say God bless him
While one who sings with his tongue on fire
Gargles in the rat race choir
Bent out of shape from society’s pliers
Cares not to come up any higher
But rather get you down in the hole
That he’s in
So, too, did Erick Erickson. And I’d like to extend my sincere good wishes for his health, the health of his wife. It is a terrifying thing for both parents to be seriously ill when they have young children.
As to the Republican infighting, how bad has it gotten?
Bad enough that now the Trump camp is blaming Paul Ryan for leaking the Access Hollywood tape through his advisor Dan Senor.
— Mike Cernovich (@Cernovich) October 11, 2016
If you’re not amazed, you’re not paying attention.