Update [2005-7-5 9:27:34 by susanhu]: Juan Cole gets an earful from a British reservist on conditions in Southern Iraq.

“MoD [Ministry of Defence] plans Iraq troop withdrawal,” headlines the FInancial Times (via Raw Story).

The [MoD] has drafted plans for a significant withdrawal of British troops from Iraq over the next 18 months and a big deployment to Afghanistan …

In what would represent the biggest operational shake-up involving the armed forces since the Iraq war, the first stage of a run-down in military operations is likely to take place this autumn with a handover of security to Iraqis in at least two southern provinces. More:

On May 22, I wrote a story, “Secret UK Troops Plan for Afghan Crisis,” based on a Scotsman report that states, “As the bloody imbroglio of Iraq has preoccupied the world’s headlines” — reports Sunday’s Scotsman — Afghanistan is tearing at the seams, “to the extent that some officials in Washington and London are beginning to warn of a descent into bloodshed that would rival the brutality of Baghdad.”

An explosive cocktail of feuding tribal warlords, insurgents, the remnants of the Taliban, and under-performing Afghan institutions has left the fledgling democracy on the verge of disintegration, according to analysts and senior officers.

The May 22 story said that “UK military planners and analysts warn that 5,500 extra UK troops may be needed. Meanwhile, the U.S. is blaming President Hamid Karzai’s failure of leadership for controlling poppy production at the same time its troops are courting drug lords.”

More from today’s Financial Times story:

enior UK officers believe the four south-east provinces under UK command, which are largely Shia and have not seen the same violence as more Sunni-dominated areas north of Baghdad, may be ready for a handover earlier than those under US command.

Any reduction of UK troops could be timed to coincide with plans being developed to deploy a total of up to 3,000 troops to Afghanistan before the end of next year. This deployment would take the lead in a Nato force to take over from US troops in the south of Afghanistan.

In that role, the UK forces would help fight insurgents and provide support for the war on narcotics in the region.

While the MoD insisted that no decision had been made on Afghan or Iraqi deployments, John Reid, defence secretary, said yesterday that Iraqi forces could begin to take charge of security in their country within a year.

In an interview with the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, Mr Reid suggested that plans were consistent with the recent prediction of Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, that it could take take up to 12 years to defeat the Iraqi insurgency.

He told the BBC that while the insurgency in Iraq may go on for “some considerable time”, there remained a second question.

“Who will lead the security efforts against the insurgency? And I think in a relatively short period of time we can start the process of that being led by the Iraqi security forces themselves,” he said.

Mr Reid went on: “So although Donald Rumsfeld may have said, correctly, that this may take years before it is finally completed, that did not imply that all that period will have to be led by the multi-national forces or the British forces.

“I personally think that within a year we could begin that transition to the Iraqi forces leading the effort themselves.”


By next April, a best case scenario would see current troops levels of 8,500 reduced to about 4,000-5,000, with a further cut in the period leading to the first quarter of 2007, when the British military presence is expected to fall to about 1,000 advisers and training personnel.

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