We all know that the Netroots is not a representative sample of the Democratic Party. Far from it. Yesterday I wrote Who Were Edwards’ Voters?, wherein I showed that Edwards’ voters in the early primary and caucus contests were whiter, richer, more pro-war, and more moderate-to-conservative than we would expect given the populist, poverty-focused, anti-corporate, anti-war message of his campaign. Looking at the exit polls gave me almost no signs that Edwards’ supporters will break to Obama. So it is interesting to see the results of the most recent Daily Kos poll:
dKos Reader Poll. 1/30/07 9:58 a.m. to 8:27 p.m. PT. 17,995 respondents.
2008 2007
Jan30 Jan24 Jan16 Jan07 Jan02 Dec19 Dec12 Nov Oct
Obama 76 41 41 39 27 27 30 27 16
H. Clinton 11 9 11 7 7 6 8 9 9
Other 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3
No F'ing Clue 6 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 5
-------Out of the race--------
Edwards - 42 38 43 48 41 39 33 31
Kucinich - 2 4 4 3 5 8 9 5
Dodd - - - - 4 11 2 7 21
Biden - - - - 1 2 2 2 1
Richardson - - - 1 1 1 1 1 2
Gravel* - - - - 0 0 0 0 0
How did Edwards’ 42% support break among Daily Kos readers? Obama got 35% 83% of them, Clinton 2% 5%, and there was an 8% uptick in undecided voters (probably because Kucinich also dropped out).
I think the disconnect between the Netroots and the party at large can be seen in these numbers from South Carolina:
When asked if they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, 33% of Edwards’ supports said ‘no’. When asked if they would be satisfied if Obama won the nomination 47% said ‘no’.
Now, I don’t think South Carolina Democrats are any more representative of the national party than Daily Kos readers, but the disconnect is staggering. And I think it helps explain why some people simply refused to believe the numbers from the Exit Polls. We’re all living in the same country, but the difference between high and low information voters is simply staggering. I think the only thing that explains it is that the more people pay attention, the less they like Hillary Clinton and her campaign. But there may be other explanations that are escaping me right now.
