There’s no question that all the momentum is on Barack Obama’s side, but there is some question about whether Super Tuesday will come too soon. And then there is a second question: will Super Tuesday unravel Obama’s momentum if he loses more states and delegates than Clinton? Right now it looks like Obama will win Illinois, Georgia, and Colorado. And he has a good shot at winning Alabama, Connecticut and some of the smaller caucus states. It also looks like he will poll well enough in the states he loses to bring in over 40% of the delegates there. In other words, it looks like Feb. 5th will be a good day for Clinton but it will not eliminate, or even cripple, Obama’s campaign.

Here’s how the post Super Tuesday schedule looks for February:

9 – Louisiana, Nebraska caucus, Washington caucus, U.S. Virgin Islands caucus
10 – Maine caucus
12 – D.C., Maryland, Virginia
19 – Hawaii, Wisconsin

Obama has some strengths in these states. Washington DC will surely give him a resounding victory. Obama grew up in Hawaii and should win that state easily. Ben Nelson has endorsed him, which is very meaningful in the Nebraska caucus. I expect him to win the Virgin Islands caucus, for what it’s worth.

But all of that will not be enough. Obama will have to win big prizes like Louisiana, Washington state, Virginia, and Maryland. That’s certainly possible, but only if Obama can maintain his momentum even through a narrow defeat next Tuesday. Unless, of course, he doesn’t suffer a narrow defeat next Tuesday, but actually wins.

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