It’s showdown time for the Democrats (for the umpteenth time) this Tuesday in Pennsylvania. So here’s my prediction of what will happen tomorrow. A few caveats, however. I’m not a pollster, I’m not a campaign adviser, I’m not a “journalist,” I’m not a native or transplanted Pennsylvanian (though I have visited Scranton, Pittsburgh, Erie and Philadelphia and stopped at numerous highway rest stops and small town fast food restaurants there over the last 20 years). I’m also not a pundit who appears on cable TV or gets to make the occasional appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher (his show on HBO) to laugh at Bill’s jokes. I don’t make money from blogging or shouting down people on my talk radio show.
However, like all of the above mentioned folks, I can make shit up with the best of them if I want to, and I can pull imaginary ponies out of my ass. Thus I feel eminently qualified in the 21st Century to tell you, the little people who don’t really matter (at least if you voted for Obama) what’s going to happen. I mean, everyone else is, so I might as well, too.
So here it is, what you’ve all been waiting for, my
bullshit opinion well informed analysis of who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary:
Hillary Clinton by less than 10% but slightly more than 5% of the votes cast.
Here’s what else will happen tomorrow night:
At her pro forma post-primary “I’m the winner!” speech, Hillary will declare a “major victory” in an “important state,” and announce she is staying in the race all the way to the convention. She will also mention her victory is proof that Pennsylvanians aren’t “bitter” and like a woman who can shoot a gun. There will be a comparison of herself to Rocky Balboa. Again. When interviewed, James Carville will call everyone who supports Obama a traitor, but especially Bill Richardson.
All the cable networks will carry the Clinton speech in it’s entirety. They’ll also break away from Obama’s speech after the first two minutes of it.
Someone (Brit Hume? Sean Hannity?) at Fox News will claim that this proves John McCain will win in November. Someone else will claim this just goes to show that attacks on Obama’s patriotism and his associations with Rev. Wright and other leftist terrorists (Ayers! Ayers! Ayers!) will doom his electoral chances should he become the “Democrat” nominee. Someone else will call him Barrack Hussein Osama — several times (Ann Coulter?). Brit Hume will make a face somewhere between a sneer and the look one gets when you step in dog doo-doo, and then apologize to Senator Obama (but only after a decent interval, say 20 minutes to an hour later).
Chris Matthews at MsNBC will say Pennsylvania has given Clinton the “Big Mo” back, and that the fact she lied about being under sniper fire when she visited Tuzla (and he will mention it, more than once) obviously didn’t hurt her. He’ll also claim Pennsylvania shows that good honest working people (i.e., white people) won’t vote for Obama because he’s too elitist. He’ll proclaim that Clinton’s campaign is back on track, and will now start to pressure the super delegates even harder to declare for her since Obama is so unelectable in the big Rust Belt states. Oh, and he’ll say John McCain was the real winner tomorrow.
Rachel Maddow will try to mention that, since Obama trailed Clinton by over twenty percent in Pa only 6 weeks ago, Clinton’s victory is actually a hollow one since she couldn’t beat him big in a state where she was supposed to win big, and that she won’t really pick up that many more actual delegates, but Chris Matthews will essentially tell her to STFU and then cut to a commercial. After the break Pat Buchanan will claim that a black man simply can’t be elected in America because white people won’t vote for him. Keith Olbermann will turn several shades of red but won’t say what he really believes in response (i.e., that Buchanan is a fricking racist!). This will give Matthews a chance to step in and pose the question whether Pat thinks America is ready to vote for a woman like Hillary with all her baggage (just to be fair and balanced).
CNN (wolf Blitzer?) will now claim Clinton is in the catbird seat to win the nomination if she can win in Indiana or North Carolina, and that even if she can’t Obama’s hopes this Fall have been fatally weakened. Oh, and that John McCain is the real winner in Pennsylvania. Everyone will agree with Wolf, except Jack Cafferty, but since he always sounds cranky, the rest of the CNN pundits will treat him like their crazy uncle and gently humor him. Besides, the CNN producers will only allot Jack about 30 seconds to speak, anyway. Larry King will just look old.
Obama (in his concession speech which no one will be watching since the cable nets will only show snippets of it) will be gracious, but will also point out that he did well in a state in which Clinton led by 20% six short weeks ago, that he still commands an overwhelming lead in pledged delegates, that he respects Senator Clinton, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile his organization will move on and work even harder in Indiana and North Carolina.
Howard Dean will say “Oh Shit!” but only in private. In public, he’ll plaster a smile on his face and repeat his call/plea for the race for the Democratic nomination to be decided before the convention. The Clinton campaign will attack Dean for trying to defeat the will of the people.
John McCain will say he doesn’t believe that it’s appropriate for him to comment on the Democratic race, that he respects both Senators Clinton and Obama immensely, and that both are true American patriots whose vision of how to solve the many problems we face is very different than his own. He’ll then add that Obama’s loss Tuesday proves that the major issue in the presidential campaign will be Iraq and the “War on Terror,” and that whichever Democrat he faces in the Fall will be much less qualified to be the Commander-in-Chief, to win in Iraq and to keep America safe from the terrorists. Note: McCain might not mention that last part himself, but trust me, one of his surrogates will.
Naturally, I could be completely wrong about all of the above. Well, except for the parts where the media says it’s all good for McCain and Clinton saying she’s staying in the race all the way to the convention. Those are sort of givens.
So be happy Obama supporters. When have I ever been right before about this election stuff?