To get a sense for how vulnerable the Republican House members are, I looked at every Republican-held seat in the country that has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+10 or less. The seat the Republicans lost in Mississippi last night has a PVI of R+10. I also added in a few seats that are more Republican than R+10 but which have very well funded Democrats in the race.
As you’ll see there are over seventy-five potentially competitive seats, and another thirty or so that could be competitive if the Dems find a candidate, or if the candidate improves their fundraising, or if the DCCC can devote enough money to make up for a financial disadvantage.
Simply put, the Republicans should be absolutely terrified. More than a third of their seats are in jeopardy.
You can look up the the cash-on-hand for every candidate here. I used the following format for each seat:
Congressional District (CD), Partisan Voting Index (PVI), Incumbent/Open Seat, Challenger, Challenger’s Cash on Hand (COH). Enjoy.
CD-02 (R+13)- (Open Seat)- Bobby Bright- COH: 46,000
CD-03 (R+4)- (Mike Rogers)- Josh Segall- COH: 223,000
CD-05 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- R. Parker Griffith- COH: 112,000
Alaska (Primary Date: 8/26/08)
CD-AL (R+14)- (Don Young) – Ethan Berkowitz- COH: 287,000. Diane Benson- COH: 45,000
Arizona (Primary Date: 9/2/08)
CD-01 (R+2)- (Open Seat)- Ann Kirkpatrick- COH: 465,000. Jeff Riley- COH: 216,000
CD-02 (R+9)- (Trent Franks)- John Thrasher- COH: 12,500
CD-03 (R+6)- (John Shadegg)- Bob Lord- COH: 632,000
California (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-03 (R+7)- (Dan Lungren)- Bill Durston- COH: 128,000
CD-19 (R+10)- (George Radanovich)- no challenger
CD-24 (R+5)- (Elton Gallegly, possible retirement. Michael Tenenbaum has COH: 123,000)- Mary Pallant- COH: 10,500. Jill Martinez- COH: 3,000.
CD-25 (R+7)- (Buck McKeon)- Jacquese Lynn Conaway- COH: 151 dollars. Seriously.
CD-26 (R+4)- (David Dreier)- Russ Warner- COH: 244,000
CD-40 (R+8)- (Ed Royce)- No challenger has any COH.
CD-41 (R+9)- (Jerry Lewis, under investigation)- Tim Prince- COH: 107,000
CD-42 (R+10)- (Gary Miller)- Edwin Chau- COH: 32,000. Ron ‘Kossack’ Shepston- COH: 10,000.
CD-44 (R+6)- (Ken Calvert, Abramoff problems)- Bill Hedrick- COH: 12,000. Louis Vandenberg- COH: 10,000.
CD-45 (R+3)- (Mary Bono)- Julie Bornstein- COH: 104,000 (self-funder).
CD-46 (R+6)- (Dana Rohrabacher)- Debbie Cook- COH: 32,000.
CD-48 (R+8)- (John Campbell)- Steve Young- COH: 10,000…and debt of 223,000. Not sure about that story.
CD-49 (R+10)- (Darrell Issa)- Bob Hamilton- COH: 21,000
CD-50 (R+5)- (Brian Bilbray)- Nick Liebham- COH: 240,000
CD-52 (R+9)- (Open Seat, Duncan Hunter’s son running to replace him)- Mike Lumpkin- COH: 80,000
Colorado (Primary Date: 8/12/08)
CD-03 (R+6)- (Marilyn Musgrave)- Betsy Markey- COH: 376,000
CD-06 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Henry Eng- COH: 13,000
CD-04 (D+5)- (Chris Shays)- Jim Himes- COH- 1,025,000
Delaware (Primary Date: 9/9/08)
CD-AL (D+7)- (Michael Castle)- no challenger has any significant COH. Kossack Jerry Northington is a candidate in the race.
Florida (Primary Date: 8/26/08)
CD-05 (R+5)- (Ginny Brown-Waite)- no challengers with COH.
CD-06 (R+8)- (Cliff Stearns)- no challengers with COH.
CD-07 (R+3)- (John Mica)- no challengers with COH.
CD-08 (R+3)- (Rik Keller)- Charles Stuart- COH: 316,000. James Smith- COH: 296,000
CD-09 (R+4)- (Gus Bilirakis)- John Dicks- COH: 312,000. Bill Mitchell- COH: 149,000
CD-12 (R+5)- (Adam Putnam) no challengers with COH.
CD-13 (R+4)- (Vern Buchanan)- Christine Jennings- COH: 483,000
CD-14 (R+10)- (Connie Mack)- Larry Byrnes- COH: 55,000
CD-15 (R+4)-(Open Seat)- Steve Blythe- COH: 12,000. Paul Rancatore- COH: 6,300
CD-18 (R+6)- (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)- Annette Taddeo- COH: 300,000
CD-21 (R+6)- (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)- Raul Martinez- COH: 593,000
CD-24 (R+3)- (Tom Feeney)- Suzanne Kosmos- COH: 581,000
CD-25 (R+4)- (Mario Diaz-Balart)- Joe Garcia- COH: 316,000
CD-01 (R+19)- (Bill Sali)- Walt Minnich- COH: 328,000
CD-06 (R+3)- (Peter Roskam)- Jill Morgenthaler- COH: 163,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Debbie Halvorson- COH: 673,000
CD-13 (R+5)- (Judy Biggert)- Scott Harper- COH: 103,000
CD-15 (R+6)- (Tim Johnson)- no challenger with COH.
CD-16 (R+4)- (Don Manzullo)- Robert Abboud- COH: 64,000
CD-18 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Colleen Callahan- COH: 107,000
CD-19 (R+8)- (John Shimkus)- Joe McMenamin- COH: 98,000
CD-03 (R+16)- (Mark Souder)- Mike Montagano- COH: 268,000
CD-04 (R+17)- (Steve Buyer)- Nels Ackerson- COH: 150,000
CD-06 (R+11)- (Mike Pence)- Barry ‘Tribber’ Welsh- COH: 20,000
Iowa (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-04 (D+0)- (Tom Latham)- Kurtis Meyer- COH: 108,000
CD-05 (R+8)- (Steve King)- Ron Hubler- COH: 47,000
CD-01 (R+10)- (Ed Whitfield)- no challenges with any COH.
CD-05 (R+8)- (Hal Rodgers)- no challengers with any COH.
Louisiana (Primary Date: 9/6/08)
CD-04 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Paul Carmouche- COH: 109,000. Willie Banks- COH: 17,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Rodney Alexander)- no opponent.
CD-01 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Frank Kratovil- COH: 182,000
CD-06 (R+13)- (Roscoe Bartlett)- Jennifer Dougherty- COH: 19,000
Michigan (Primary Date: 8/5/08)
CD-02 (R+9)- (Peter Hoekstra)- Fred Johnson- COH: 3,600
CD-03 (R+9)- (Vernon Ehlers)- no challenger
CD-04 (R+3)- (Dave Camp)- Andrew Concannon- COH: 16,000
CD-06 (R+2)- (Fred Upton)- no challenger
CD-07 (R+2)- (Tim Wahlberg)- Mark Schauer- COH: 751,000
CD-08 (R+2)- (Mike Rogers)- Robert Alexander- COH: 16,000
CD-09 (R+0)- (Joe Knollenberg)- Gary Peters- COH: 645,000
CD-10 (R+4)- (Candice Miller)- no challenger
CD-11 (R+1)- (Thad McCotter)- Ed Kiewall- COH: 7,000
CD-02 (R+3)- (John Kline)- Steve Sarvi- COH: 39,000
CD-03 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Ashwin Madia- COH: 190,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Michelle Bachmann)- Elwyn Tinklenberg- COH: 102,000
Missouri (Primary Date: 8/5/08)
CD-02 (R+9)- (Todd Akin)- Byron Delear- COH: 116,000. Dave Pentland- COH: 66,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Sam Graves)- Kay Barnes- COH: 954,000
CD-09 (R+7)- (Open Seat)- Judy Baker- COH: 188,000. Bob Gaw- COH: 102,000. Ken Jacob- COH: 74,000.
CD-02 (R+9)- (Terry Lee)- Jim Esch- COH: 88,000
Nevada (Primary Date: 8/12/08)
CD-02 (R+8)- (Dean Heller)- Jill Derby- COH: 134,000
New Jersey (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-02 (D+4)- (Frank LaBiondo)- no challengers with COH.
CD-03 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- John Adler- COH: 1,003,000
CD-04 (R+1)- (Chris Smith)- Josh Zeitz- COH: 91,000
CD-05 (R+4)- (Scott Garrett)- Dennis Shulman- COH: 246,000. Camille Abate- COH: 116,000.
CD-07 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Linda Stender- COH: 845,000
CD-11 (R+6)- (Rodney Frelinghuysen)- Tom Wyka- COH: 13,000
New Mexico (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-01 (D+2)- (Open Seat)- Martin Heinrich- COH: 342,000. Michelle Grisham- COH: 140,000
CD-02 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Harry Teague- COH: 337,000. Bill McCamley- COH: 236,000.
New York (Primary Date: 9/9/08)
CD-02 (D+2)- (Peter King)- no challenger with COH.
CD-13 (D+1)- (Vito ‘Secret Family’ Fosselli)- Dom Recchia- COH: 325,000. Steve Harrison- COH: 91,000.
CD-23 (R+0)- (John McHugh)- Michael Oot- COH: 15,000
CD-25 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- Dan Maffei- COH: 676,000
CD-26 (R+3)- (Open Seat)- Jon Powers- COH: 402,000. Alice Kryzan- COH: 207,000
CD-29 (R+5)- (John Kuhl)- Eric Massa- COH: 565,000.
CD-08 (R+3)- (Robin Hayes)- Larry Kissell- COH: 131,000
CD-01 (R+1)- (Steve Chabot)- Steve Dreihaus- COH: 567,000
CD-02 (R+13)- (Mean Jean Schmidt)- Vic Wulsin- COH: 212,000
CD-03 (R+3)- (Mike Turner)- Jane Mitakides- COH: 164,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Bob Latta Jr.)- no opponent with COH.
CD-07 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Sharon Neuhardt- COH: 50,000
CD-12 (R+1)- (Pat Tiberi)- Dave Robinson- COH: 8,000.
CD-14 (R+2)- (Steve LaTourette)- Bill O’Neill- COH: 47,000
CD-15 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Mary Jo Kilroy- COH: 944,000
CD-16 (R+4)- (Open Seat)- John Boccieri- COH: 250,000
CD-03 (R+2)- (Phil English)- Kathy Dahlkemper- COH: 74,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Mark McCracken- COH: 3,000
CD-18 (R+2)- (Tim Murphy)- Steve O’Donnell- COH: 200,000
CD-01 (R+10)- (Harry Brown)- Linda Ketner- COH: 130,000
Tennessee (Primary Date: 8/7/08)
CD-03 (R+8)- (Zach Wamp)- no opponent.
CD-07 (R+16)- (John Culberson)- Mike Skelly- COH: 667,000
CD-10 (R+13)- (Mike McCaul)- Larry Joe Doherty- COH: 122,000
Virginia (Primary Date: 6/10/08)
CD-01 (R+9)- (Bob Wittman)- Phil Forgit- COH: 11,200
CD-02 (R+6)- (Thelma Drake)- Glenn Nye- COH: 223,000
CD-04 (R+5)- (Randy Forbes)- no challenger with COH.
CD-05 (R+6)- (Virgil ‘Nutso’ Goode)- Tom Perriello- COH: 440,000
CD-10 (R+5)- (Frank Wolf)- Judy Feder- COH: 700,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Gerry Connelly- COH: 422,000. Leslie Byrne- COH: 237,000. Doug Denneny- COH: 51,000.
CD-05 (R+7)- (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)- no challenger with COH.
CD-08 (D+2)- (Dave Reichert)- Darcy Burner- COH: 922,000
CD-02 (R+5)- (Shelley Moore Capito)- Anne Barth- COH: 327,000
CD-01 (R+2)- (Paul Ryan)- Margeret Krupp- COH: 24,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Tom Petri)- Roger Kittleson- COH: 3,000
CD-AL (R+19)- (Open Seat)- Gary Trauner- COH: 551,000