Larry Sabato is one of the most respected political scientists in the USA. He’s a professor at the U. of Virginia and considered perhaps the preeminent political pundit on elections. His final pre-election analysis in 2006 got the exact number of Democratic gains in the House and Senate and was off by only one in governors’ races. In 2008, he missed the final Electoral College count by only one, and missed the final House tally by only five seats.
Sabato has just issued a prediction that is gloomy in the extreme for the Democrats in November. He sees the Democrats losing 47 seats and control of the House and losing 8 or 9 Senate seats and 8 governorships.
From a story written by Stephen Thomma and McClatchy Newspapers, “GOP will take over House, Political Guru Sabato Predicts” at http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/09/02/1803628/gop-will-take-over-house-political.html :
“2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a matter of degree,” Sabato said in a written analysis released Thursday.
“Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.”
With Labor Day looming, Sabato wrote, it’s now clear that the summer didn’t turn out as Democrats wanted.
“Conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd.
“Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed ‘Recovery Summer’ has become a term of derision, and to most voters — fair or not — it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.”
Obama and his team are squarely to blame and this and Rahm and Obama seem to have been driving the Democratic bus towards a cliff for the past two years with attacks on the party base.
But I think all is not lost IF President Obama shakes up his administration and does the following:
- Appoints Elizabeth Warren to the consumer protection bureau position. Why the delay, please? She’s got the qualifications and lots of people want her to do this job. This alone would fire up the Democratic base.
- Fire Rahm, Geithner and Summers and bring in a new team. Obama and his economic advisers don’t seem to get that “It’s the economy, stupid!” Unemployment is the biggest problem facing the country followed by the housing problem and houses being repossessed.
- Fire Alan Simpson and get rid of the entire “deficit reduction commission” which is little more than a tool Obama set up to gut social security. He did it by executive order so he can disband it himself.
- Appoint a Democrat to head the DOD and give him a mandate to cut costs there.
These are simple steps that will help prevent the slaughter that Sabato predicts. Even if they are taken, it is likely Democrats will lose 30 seats in the House but maybe not control. If Obama does nothing, he’s a one term President.
