Megan McArdle tries her hand at concern-trolling:
As I understand it, there is about a 0% chance that Democrats will retake the House in 2014, which means that Republicans already have quite an efficient veto over any legislation they might like to pass. Meanwhile, there’s about a 70% chance that Republicans will control the White House, the House, and the Senate come January 2017. Without the filibuster in place, Republicans could do a lot of damage to programs that Democrats like. That seems an expensive risk to run in order to get some presidential nominees through, however mad you are about GOP obstructionism.
Logic and prognosis are not her strong suits. After the upcoming special election in New Jersey, the Democrats will have 55 seats in the Senate. Do you think that the Republicans have a 70% chance of netting six Senate seats in the next two elections? Remember, in 2016, the Republicans will be defending all those seats they won in 2010, like Kelly Ayotte’s seat in New Hampshire, Ron Johnson’s in Wisconsin, Rob Portman’s in Ohio, and Pat Toomey’s in Pennsylvania, but they’ll be doing it in a presidential election cycle with much higher turnout.
On the presidential level, the Republicans have lost the popular vote in all but one election since 1988, and they have never cracked 300 electoral votes. Does anyone think they have a 70% of winning the White House in 2016? Based on what?
As for the House, it certainly will be hard to win it back. But is it true that the Democrats have a zero percent chance of winning 17 seats in the next two midterms? Surely, their chances must be somewhat better than zero.
McGargle Bargle.
