Molly Ball has been documenting the atrocities experienced by the Democrats in Iowa for the Atlantic, and she’s produced some compelling reporting. Despite this, the polling out of Iowa has shown one one-point spread after another. There’s no question that Joni Ernst has a discernible advantage in the sense that she’s led in noticeably more polls than in which she has trailed, but it’s hard to find any polls outside the margin of error. As a result, we’re forced to go deeper and look at things like early voting. On that score, things look incredibly discouraging for Braley, to the point that one wonders how he is managing to do so well in the polls. Based on the early voting, I’d be ready to call this a blowout in Ernst’s favor.
This is why, if I am forced to make a call on what is basically a coin-flip, I really have no basis to pick Braley. But, to be clear, it’s still basically a coin-flip. If I pick Braley, I still have almost a 50% chance of being right. It’s just that I can find no basis to think that the odds would be in my favor.
Hillary Clinton will be in Davenport and Cedar Rapids today, stumping for the Braley campaign. In an election this close, Clinton’s advocacy could make a difference. Yet, I don’t forget that Clinton came in third, behind Barack Obama and John Edwards, in the 2008 Iowa Caucuses. She may be the Democrats’ second most popular advocate (after her husband) but this state isn’t in her wheelhouse. Bill Clinton was in Des Moines over the weekend, making an appearance with singer/songwriter James Taylor. Reportedly, the Big Dog will be back this weekend, too, despite the fact that Hillary was Braley’s third choice for the nomination back in 2007.
Braley also won the endorsement of the Des Moines Register after Joni Ernst cancelled her meeting with the editorial staff. A lot of people think the Register would have endorsed her if she had merely given them the courtesy of showing up. As newspaper endorsements go, the Register is generally considered to be more influential than average, so I wouldn’t dismiss the value of this for Braley, especially in a close race.
Obviously, I am still hopeful about this race, but the early voting numbers indicate that something is dreadfully wrong. The best spin I can put on it is that Ernst voters are more motivated and are voting without prompting, while the Braley contingent needs to be led dragging and kicking. If this is correct, then the Democrats’ ground game could still be working, it’s just that they have more of an uphill climb than they ever expected.
It shocks the conscience, but it looks like Ernst has to be favored to win this race and become a U.S. Senator with a six-year term.
I will not be shocked if this election turns out not to even be that close in the end.
But, I don’t want to be gloomy. If the polls are correct, this election is so close that you could actually make a difference by getting involved. You can sign up to volunteer here.
