Israel and the United States announced yesterday that they recently held a joint military exercise to test their missile defense systems:
Israel and the United States on Tuesday concluded a joint computer-based exercise simulating a non-conventional missile strike, military sources said.
The joint air-defence drill, called Juniper Cobra 2007, was designed to improve “understanding and cooperation” between Israeli and US military forces, the Israeli army said.
The exercise included the testing of Israel’s Arrow missile interception system as well as the US-produced Patriot system.
One thing you can be sure of: this exercise was not really intended to improve “understanding and cooperation” between Israel and the United States. I am reasonably certain it’s primary purpose was to rattle Iran’s cage, as well as advance preparations for a possible military strike by either Israel or the US against Iran’s nuclear facilities.
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First, there was no need to announce this computer simulated exercise. I’m sure the US and Israel have conducted plenty of similar, low key exercises in the past without making a public announcement of that fact. Both countries know that any public disclosure of a working military relationship is bound to inflame passions in the populations of the Middle East, as well as make trouble for those governments the US deems “friendly” to its interests in the region (i.e., Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the other Gulf States). So the only reason to announce such an exercise publicly would be to send a message to Iran.
Second, this is just one more in a series provocations by the US over the past year or so which have targeted Iran. From the capture of Iranians in Iraq by US forces, the possible kidnapping or induced defection of senior Iranian military figures in Turkey, the ginned up claims of Iran supplying insurgents with advanced weaponry to be used against American troops in Iraq, to naval war games in the Persian Gulf last Fall, the Bush administration has clearly demonstrated that “regime change through military strikes on Iran” is very much an option “on the table.”
Third, there are two other events that may have triggered this announcement of US/Israeli military ties. The US sponsored sanctions resolution against Iran in the UN Security Council has made little headway. While Russia and China have finally given their consent to a compromise version of such a resolution, the original sanctions the US sought have been watered down significantly. Furthermore, it is still not a done deal that even that weakened resolution will be approved by the Security Council as a whole:
New York – South Africa on Monday called for a 90-day “time out” on sanctions against Iran, and said a resolution drafted by six world powers should drop an embargo on arms exports and financial sanctions targeting Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and an Iranian bank.
The proposals by South Africa, which holds the presidency of the UN security council this month, were obtained by The Associated Press ahead of an informal council meeting on Tuesday and the first formal discussion on Wednesday on the draft resolution.
Germany and the five veto-wielding permanent council nations – the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France – agreed on modest new sanctions on Thursday to step up pressure on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, which can be used to produce nuclear energy or nuclear weapons.
But South Africa and the nine other non-permanent council members were not part of the negotiations and only received the draft on Thursday to consider and propose changes.
The other development was this story regarding Iran’s refusal to allow IAEA inspections at one of its nuclear facilities:
Iran hasn’t admitted IAEA inspectors to the underground bin of its Natanz nuclear facilities, where the uranium enrichment centrifuges are installed, AFP reported referring to diplomatic sources. According to the IAEA report promulgated February 22, Natanz facilities have four cascades of centrifuges, each of which consisting of 164 similar devices. Moreover, Iran has nearly assembled two more cascades of 328 centrifuges.
IAEA observers intended to inspect the facility March 17, timing their visit to the sitting of U.N. Security Council, which is slated for the end of this month and which will decide on the new resolution on Tehran nuclear program.
The US may have intended all along to publicly announce its missile defense exercise with Israel, but it also may have taken this step in response to Iran’s recent action. It may also have disclosed these exercises as a reminder to any country on the UN Security Council that, if no sanctions resolution passes, or if the resolution is watered down again in diplomatic discussions among Council members, the US may simply choose the military option, possibly in conjunction with Israel.
Finally, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is scheduled to speak at the UN in opposition to the proposed sanctions. It’s quite possible that the announcement of Israeli/US military “cooperation” was intended to provoke him and other hardliners in Iran’s government. In essence, this exercise provides the more radical elements in Iran’s government with further justifications to resist diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program. In effect, the US and Israel are telling Iran’s government that they are ready for war, and that any diplomatic solution short of complete capitulation by Iran will not eliminate the threat of unilateral military action by US or Israeli forces.
And that may be the only purpose served by this announcement of an effort to advance “understanding and cooperation” between Israel and the United States: to make war with Iran more likely. Which is why this story is a very bad sign indeed.
