I can’t think of a plausible scenario where North Carolina would decide the presidential election. But it sure would be nice to win it again. Recent polls there have been mixed. Public Policy Polling had Obama up by one point, SurveyUSA had him up by four, and the pro-GOP Rasmussen had Romney up by eight points. Of course, the Democratic National Convention will take place in Charlotte, for whatever that’s worth. I think it’s clear that the Obama campaign thought a state they won by less than 15,000 votes needed a little boost. But it’s not going to be easy:
One senior North Carolina Democrat, who insisted on anonymity because of involvement in multiple statewide and legislative campaigns, said private polling in a variety of state races shows that white voters and independents are trending toward Republicans in an alarming way.
“The biggest thing Obama has got to overcome here is his problems with white independent voters, those middle-of-the-road voters,” the Democrat said. “If he doesn’t, we are going to get our asses whipped like I have never seen in my 20 years of doing politics.”
The Democrat predicted a “bloodbath” for the party in November if those numbers fail to tighten.
Holding the convention in Charlotte, this person said, might make for an exciting week but will do little to push the state in Obama’s direction: “I’m glad that it’s here for sheer state pride, but is it going to make much difference at Wilber’s Barbecue in Goldsboro?”
In 2008, Obama lost independents to McCain in the Tarheel State. He won because the Republicans had 31% turnout and he turned out a massive amount of new voters, including hordes of college students. He was also more convincing with North Carolina’s students than he was nationally:
The share of voters under 30 was the same in North Carolina as it was nationally.
But thanks in large part to the stout organizational efforts of the Obama campaign on more than 100 college campuses across the state, voters between 18 and 29 chose Obama over McCain by a stunning 74%-26% margin.
If that split more closely resembled the youth vote nationwide — 66% for Obama and 32% for McCain — roughly 60,000 North Carolina votes would have swung to McCain, handing him the state and its 15 electoral votes.
McCain was close to the worst candidate you could possibly pitch to college students in 2008, and his anti-intellectual running-mate didn’t help matters. But I don’t think Romney has much appeal either. He doesn’t have a cool bone in his body. Still, if he came out for decriminalizing weed, he’d win North Carolina in a walk.
