Can we all agree that most people that go out to vote in November will be primarily interested in casting their vote for president, and not for Senate or the House? If you are Jeanne Shaheen, for example, and you are running against John Sununu for one of the New Hampshire senate seats, you can do almost as well by convincing people to get out and vote for Obama or Clinton, as getting them out to vote for you, right?
Presidential election years are different than midterm election years. When we think about blue senators in red states (e.g., Mary Landrieu or Tim Johnson) or red senators in blue states (e.g. Gordon Smith or Norm Coleman) it is much easier for a challenger to beat them in a presidential year than in a midterm year. The reason is greater turnout, and that favors the candidate of the same party as the presidential candidate that carries the state. It is just difficult to get voters to vote for one party for president and another party downticket.
If you’ve been paying attention, you know that there are 35 senate seats up for reelection this year (33 regularly scheduled and 2 special elections). Twenty-three of those seats are held by Republicans and 12 are held by Democrats. But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at the seats.
- Senate seats that voted for Gore then Bush or Bush then Kerry (with incumbent)
Iowa- Tom Harkin-D
New Hampshire- John Sununu-R
New Mexico- Pete Domenici-R (retiring)
Senate Seats that voted for Bush twice
Alaska- Ted Stevens-R
Idaho- Larry Craig-R (retiring)
Montana- Max Baucus-R
Wyoming- Mike Enzi-R
Wyoming (special election)- John Barrasso-R
Colorado- Wayne Allard-R (retiring)
South Dakota- Tim Johnson-D
Nebraska- Chuck Hagel-R (retiring)
Kansas- Pat Roberts-R
Oklahoma- James Inhofe-R
Texas- John Cornyn-R
Arkansas- Mark Pryor-D
Louisiana- Mary Landrieu-D
Mississippi- Thad Cochran-R
Mississippi (special election)- Roger Wicker-R
Alabama- Jeff Sessions-R
Georgia- Saxby Chambliss-R
South Carolina- Lindsey Graham-R
North Carolina- Elizabeth Dole-R
Virginia- John Warner-R (retiring)
West Virginia- Jay Rockefeller-D
Kentucky- Mitch McConnell-R
Tennessee- Lamar Alexander-R
Senate seats that voted for Gore and Kerry
Delaware- Joe Biden-D
Illinois- Dick Durbin-D
Maine- Susan Collins- R
Massuchusetts- John Kerry-D
Michigan- Carl Levin-D
Minnesota- Norm Coleman-R
New Jersey- Frank Lautenberg-D
Oregon- Gordon Smith-R
Rhode Island- Jack Reed-D
To examine the differential coattails of Obama versus Clinton, let’s look at two things. First, let’s look at Charlie Cook’s Senate Rankings (.pdf) and then let’s combine that with the SurveyUSA polls for McCain matchups against Obama and Clinton.
- SAFE DEMOCRATIC (coattails not needed)
Pryor (AR) Obama -20, Clinton +11
Biden (DE) Obama +9, Clinton +5
Harkin (IA) Obama +9, Clinton -5
Durbin (IL) Obama +29, Clinton +11
Kerry (MA) Obama +7, Clinton +18
Levin (MI) Obama +1, Clinton 0
Baucus (MT) Obama -8, Clinton -20
Lautenberg (NJ) Obama 0, Clinton +5
Reed (RI) Obama +15, Clinton +17
Rockefeller (WV) Obama -18, Clinton +5
While none of these candidates should require any coattails to help them get reelected, it is clear that Obama would help Harkin, Durbin, and Baucus, while hurting Pryor and Rockefeller. Clinton would help Pryor, Rockefeller, and Kerry, while hurting Harkin and Baucus. In this category, Harkin and Baucus are the most vulnerable.
Advantage: Obama
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC
Johnson (SD) Obama -4, Clinton -12
VA (J. Warner) Obama 0, Clinton -10
In this category, Obama does less damage to Johnson than Clinton would. Obama does no damage to Mark Warner, while Clinton creates a drag.
Advantage: Obama
LEAN DEMOCRATIC
Landrieu (LA) Obama -15, Clinton -10
In this category, Clinton does less damage to Landrieu than Obama would.
Advantage: Clinton
TOSS-UP
Stevens (AK) Obama -5, Clinton -22
CO (Allard) Obama +9, Clinton -6
Sununu (NH) Obama +2, Clinton -8
NM (Domenici) Obama +7, Clinton 0
In this most important category, Obama gets a clean sweep. Obama is winning in Colorado and New Hampshire, while Clinton is losing. Obama is winning in New Mexico, while Clinton is tied. And Obama is much less of a drag on Mayor Mark Begich’s bid to oust Ted Stevens than Clinton would be.
Advantage: Obama
LEAN REPUBLICAN
Collins (ME) Obama +14, Clinton +6
Coleman (MN) Obama +7, Clinton +4
In this category, Obama supplies better coattails in both races.
Advantage: Obama
LIKELY REPUBLICAN
NE (Hagel) Obama -3, Clinton -27
Smith (OR)- Obama +8, Clinton -5
Wicker (MS-B)- Obama -13, Clinton -9
In this category, Obama makes Nebraska competitive (even winning one electoral vote out of the state) while Clinton serves as a severe drag on the ticket. Obama is winning Oregon, while Clinton, disturbingly, is not. In Mississippi, it looks like Clinton causes modestly less damage than Obama, but, even here, any Democrat hoping to win statewide in Mississippi must get dramatic black turnout.
Advantage: Obama
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sessions (AL) Obama -14, Clinton -10
Chambliss (GA) Obama -13, Clinton -21
ID (Craig) Obama -13, Clinton -36
Roberts (KS) Obama -9, Clinton -9
McConnell (KY) Obama -21, Clinton -9
Cochran (MS A) Obama -13, Clinton -9
Dole (NC) Obama -2, Clinton -8
Inhofe (OK) Obama -23, Clinton -8
Graham (SC) Obama -3, Clinton -6
Alexander (TN) Obama -16, Clinton 0
Cornyn (TX) Obama -1, Clinton -7
Enzi (WY-A) Obama -19, Clinton -33
Barrasso (WY-B) Obama -19, Clinton -33
This is the most interesting category because this is where there is the most distinction between the candidates. A pattern emerges in the border states. Obama does horribly in Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, (and West Virginia). Clinton does horribly in Idaho, Wyoming (and Nebraska, Colorado, Montana, and Alaska). Among the 13 ‘Safe Republican’ seats, Obama does better in 7, worse in 5, and they are tied in Kansas.
Advantage: Obama
In the 35 senate races, Obama is more helpful in 22, Clinton in 12, and they are tied in one. But if we eliminate the 13 ‘Safe Republican’ and 10 ‘Safe Democratic’ seats, the advantage is even starker. In that case Obama leads in 10 and Clinton helps in two (Landrieu and Wicker).
Considering the importance of maximizing the Democratic majority in the Senate, the coattails of Obama are an important consideration.
