Sadly, but also somewhat fortuitously, Ed Kilgore is correct about this:
Now anyone who reads this blog surely knows by now that the bright 2014 prospects for an unregenerated GOP are largely baked into the cake, thanks to a sizable midterm turnout advantage, a House landscape with few marginal districts, and a very favorable Senate landscape. And there are just enough grounds for 2016 optimism among Republicans to make a good midterm outcome quite enough to convince most of these birds that a genuine “rebranding” is a fallback measure, only to be used in emergencies, and vastly less attractive than taking a chance on winning with their full freak flag displayed.
The Republicans have rebounded from their government shutdown nadir, have gained some strength from the troubled rollout of the ObamaCare website, and have begun to indulge in some irrational exuberance. The “cake” that Mr. Kilgore refers to is really just a giant cushion that will protect the GOP from the just consequences of their actions. Their House majority is safe enough that they can probably commit carnal acts with barnyard animals on the Washington Mall and not lose control. And the Democrats are protecting so many Senate seats that the Republicans can have a horrible election night in November and still pick up a handful of seats. But the correct way to look at the midterms is that the Democrats don’t have much upside potential but they can certainly still win. The Dems could whittle away at the House majority and hold their own in the Senate, while picking up a few statehouses in the process.
The bigger reason for rebranding is to do something about the structural advantage the Democrats have in the Electoral College. When a party holds the White House for twelve or more consecutive years, it changes the country. We saw that when the Dems had a twenty-year reign from 1933-1953, and we saw it when the Republicans held the White House from 1981-1993. There is a ripple effect that is felt decades down the line. So, it is pretty important for the Republicans that they don’t allow the Democrats to win in 2016, but they aren’t even giving themselves a chance.
They think their future is bright, but that’s an illusion. Yet, I think I’d rather have them overconfident at this point.
