Don’t ‘Bring the Troops Home Now’

Four problems with ‘Bring the Troops Home Now’:

First, logistics. We can’t bring the troops home now. We can ‘start bringing the troops home now,’ but we can’t simply bring them home now. This is a process that, even in a perfect world, with competent leadership and no ‘insurgency’, would take a good deal of time.
     I realize, of course, that ‘bring the troops home now’ functions more as a rallying cry than an actual policy recommendation, and really means ‘start withdrawal now.’ But in this media environment, a rallying cry which is unrealistic–and gives the blowhards something to easily oppose and ridicule–is not optimally effective.
Second, ‘Bring the Troops Home Now’ is divisive of the left. There are many on the left (including many on this site, and Howard Dean, for example) who want an exit plan and support phased withdrawal … but don’t or can’t get behind ‘Bring the Troops Home Now.’
     Some of this is undoubtedly political calculation (which I leave to the political calculators–maybe they’re right, maybe wrong) but some is reality-based consideration. Several months ago, Juan Cole said a simple US withdrawal was not wise (though I don’t know if he’s changed his mind). So this statement–slogan, whatever–divides the left.

Third, ‘Bring the Troops Home Now’ unites the right with the center with the wafflers. If ‘withdrawal now’ is the most cohesive statement of the left, the right will claim anything less as their own. Everything from increasing troop numbers and ‘staying the course’ to phased withdrawal and drawing-down the number of troops (which are the only way to begin to bring the troops home now), are ceded to the right.
     Everyone who thinks, ‘ I’m not sure we should bring the troops home now” is led to conclude that they are not really anti-war, and–given this polarized environment–to figure that means they must be pro-war, or pro-Republican, or pro-stay-the-course.

Fourth, there is no evidence to suggest this administration responds to events in the actually-existing world. They don’t respond to the facts on the ground in a war zone, they don’t listen to career military experts … why assume they’d heed this cry? They control all the centers of political power: we cannot force them to take action, we must convince them to take action.
     Obviously, many will never be convinced. But given recent polls, there is a possibility that we can make the political cost of supporting this quagmire perfectly clear. However, ‘Bring the Troops Home Now’ does not heighten the political costs for those on the right to continue to support the occupation. In fact,  it lessens the cost. We give them something to oppose and to blame (‘Immediate withdrawal, Jim? That’s crazy lefty defeatist talk–as well as being impossible!’) and the right thrives on opposition and blaming.

Now, this is all political talk, and doesn’t address the real human loss–the death, the despair, the grief–of the war. But it is politics which determines our course in Iraq.

So what is the most effective slogan we can adopt to oppose the quagmire? The slogan must unite the left, wedge the right, appeal to the center; must have the ring of self-evident and common-sensical truth; and must coopt the support of at least some Republicans. (Also, it preferably negates the ‘these colors don’t run’ and ‘if we leave, the terrorists win’ arguments, which I think are tremendously effective for the right.)

This is my suggestion: an up or down vote. Ask Iraqis to determine if we stay or leave.

Instead of Bush mumbling about the Iraqis deserving freedom, and how we took down Sadaam, we insist he walk the talk: give them freedom to determine who stays in their country. The right and center has been primed to accept ‘up or down vote’ as eminently sensible. The fear that ‘the terrorists have won’ is dissipated as we declare victory–free elections to determine our own presence–which encourages even Republicans to back this.  And we get the hell out … if asked.

Of course, there are problems with this idea (besides that the whole thing was dreamt up by a chubby bald guy sitting at his computer). Given the Bushco electoral meddling in Afghanistan and Iraq, do we trust them to run this vote? Are there regional votes, so we might stay in some areas and leave others? And there are undoubtely dozens more.

But I think ‘Bring the Troops Home Now,’ though a very simple, strong statement, isn’t the most effective thing we can be saying. An up or down vote in Iraq: Let Them Decide.