These evacuations are equivalent to 72.40% of 819 manned platforms and 47.76% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).
Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,511,715 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 100% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today’s shut-in gas production is 8.027 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 80.27% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/28/05 is 37,881,777 bbls, which is equivalent to 6.919 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/28/05 is 180.560 BCF, which is equivalent to 4.947% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).
From the Minerals Management Service
The last sentence from the Minerals Management Service should send shivers up anyone’s spine. The total shut-in oil production is almost 7% of yearly totals.
For the last 6 months or so, the oil market has rallied whenever there was news of a refinery problem. US refineries are operating near 100% capacity, and have been for about the last 6 months. As a result, the oil refiners cannot simply shift production to a plant that has extra producing capacity because that plant does not exist.
And the problem won’t go away soon, as Reuter’s reports:
Oil prices jumped more than $1 on Wednesday after the U.S. government said up to 15 percent of the nation’s storm-battered refining capacity could stay shut for weeks, rekindling fears of fuel shortages.
Strikes in France, a leading U.S. gasoline supplier, could worsen the problem by hurting Europe’s ability to send shipments across the Atlantic, with the biggest French refinery already shut down by a work stoppage.
“The longer these refineries remain shut down, the more serious the situation becomes, particularly with the heart of the winter season just a few months away,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report about the storm-struck U.S. petroleum infrastructure.
As a result of lost production, a winter heating spike is now in the cards. The only question is if the projections of a 30-70% increase were too low.
