…A game of brinkmanship being played out, keeping millions on the edge of the seat while the rest of the world is lulled into complacency. Such tit for tat provocations leave either party little leeway for a middle ground. The Iranians seem pretty sure of exacting a heavy price in the event of hostilities, and they will not go down without a ferocious fight when that happens…
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When a friend of mine felicitated me over a recent “energy geopolitics” article, I frankly admitted that I haven’t read real news for months, perhaps a year.
“I use game theory to forecast news,” and would be ready with an analyses once theory turn to facts. Just browse the headlines, get the key words, and then the key articles. Presto. Human nature is predictable and so is international relations. The only thing you can’t predict is a train collision or a plane crash somewhere.
“I think that is risky,” came the reply from Deepak Sunny Veliath. It wasn’t a naive reply; he knew me well enough. Plus, this is the only guy against whom I suffered a stalemate during a debate that rattled buildings along Valmiki Nagar, Chennai, a few days after the city had to endure the tsunami. Call it a double whammy for the residents there.
Anyway, after publishing my piece on The Brinkmanship of Energy Geopolitics, I wasn’t surprised to read that North Korea test-fired two missiles. This is an incredibly, predictable and stupid move that would rattle Russia into taking extra precautions. And not only Russia, but Japan and South Korea as well. A loose alliance might form here.
Pyongyang shocked Tokyo and other nations when it test-fired a ballistic missile over northern Japan in 1998.
In my article, I had mentioned North Korea as a nation hopelessly enslaved to China, and would be used as a proxy to create tensions in Northwest Asia once Beijing’s oil supply from the Persian Gulf gets threatened. A referral to the UN Security Council over Tehran’s uranium enrichment program is only hours away, and once that take place, expect a series of game theory maneuvers. China is a clear loser.
Guess what? The next news item was headlined “US blasts China, Iran in annual human rights report.” That Beijing perpetrates gross human rights violations and is a patron guardian of savages and dictators is undeniable. This is also the world’s top proliferator of nuclear weapons and missile technologies, and it is a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council. In other words, it has the power to impose its dictates on democracies. But to place Iran in the same mould is stretching facts a little too far. When it comes to minority persecution, the Turks, Pakistanis, Saudis, Egyptians etc have worse records. If the Occupied Territories are factored in, the Israelis can join that list. Americans have been slain in Pakistani churches. An American diplomat was killed just before Bush visited Islamabad. Have you heard of such bombings in Iran frequently?
Iran is still a democracy, however flawed. Mahmoud Ahmednijad is bad news, true, but tell me how many national leaders can command genuine respect or should be left out of the “bad news” list? And what the hell is Cuba doing in that list? This is Washington’s Achilles heel and it should cease that Cuba bogey garbage before it loses more credibility. The White House is making some right moves in deliberately engaging democracies like India, and rebuffing dictatorships at the same time. Only time will tell how that story will end. White House could of course use the “Opposition in the Congress” cop-out clause to negate the India deal, but I’d give Bush the benefit of doubt this time. The US really needs strategic partnerships among nations that have withstood the test of time.
Cuba – where democracy is missing – can also be engaged for the better. Some engagements lead to a quid pro quo; others like China just use rapprochement to sell arms to Mugabe, Khartoum, Kim Jong-il and the who’s who of lunatics who can fire missiles but can’t tolerate a single criticism from their own citizens.
Among the most far-fetched game theory scenarios I worked out: EU using the Nato Trojan Horse – in the event hostilities in the Middle east – to annihilate the US Army, which, currently numbers something like 140,000 in Iraq. Cause can be attributed to an Iranian or an accidental Israeli nuke. The other scenarios are conventional, graduated types of escalation.
Beware the Ides of March, Mr Bush. Downing Street can play it both ways. After all, the EU needs smoother trade with Beijing, unfettered by ethical limitations, while they whisper hi-falutin moralities and discourses on “civilization,” delivered romantically in an effeminate French.
“The United States has the power to cause harm and pain,” said Ali Asghar Soltanieh, a senior Iranian delegate to the IAEA. “But the United States is also susceptible to harm and pain. So if that is the path that the U.S. wishes to choose, let the ball roll.”
There you have it. A game of brinkmanship being played out, keeping millions on the edge of the seat while the rest of the world is lulled into complacency. Such tit for tat provocations leave either party little leeway for a middle ground. The Iranians seem pretty sure of exacting a heavy price in the event of hostilities, and they will not go down without a ferocious fight when that happens.
The US has other options. If a civil war escalates in Iraq, there is that troop drawdown avenue. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has indicated that the Iraqis will have to deal with their own civil war, and that is precisely what may happen. An Iraqi civil war, however, will embroil other Gulf States and Tehran, imperiling global supplies of oil. A low-intensity conflict – including terrorists attacks on oil installations – would be sufficient. Outright hostilities could break out when some lunatic carries out an act of sabotage to spark war between US forces and the Iranians. Again, there is no shortage of protagonists itching for this morbid drama. We still do not know who carried out the bombing on the al-Askariya mosque in Samarra and whether the 1,200-year-old tombs are unscathed.
In the meantime, those North Korean missiles fired this week represent a quantum leap in terms of precision and reliability. No rewards for guessing where that technology came from. OK, it comes from a Security Council member who regularly resorts to the nuclear and missile blackmail as part of its grand diplomacy. I hear Pakistan is getting “civilian” nuclear reactors from Beijing while A.Q. Khan resides somewhere more comfortable than Guantanamo or The Hague.
Speaking before the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on Thursday in Washington, General B.B. Bell said North Korea was also moving ahead with the development of longer-range ballistic missiles that could hit Alaska and targets in the continental United States.
I am skeptical about the range, but the news fits the game.
Why I’d keep a w(e)ary eye on the EU
I believe history repeats itself. The US Army had to dispatch its soldiers thrice in the past 60 years alone to put a stop to ..genocide in Europe. The latest one happened to be in ex-Yugoslavia. Europe does nothing against Turkey for its incessant genocidal designs on Kurds. Talk about “civilization” in the post-war 20th century. And this is the region that wants to mediate in the Israeli-Palestinian problem? And human rights abuses elsewhere? It has pretty much easily induced a Third World Dependency in its ex-colonies for trade. Politicians, intellectuals, academics and students are selectively favored to perpetuate this neo-slavery. When nations like India turn more independent and powerful, and its citizens rewarded for merit, guess who they find common values with? Yes, that other democracy where political shenanigans are scrutinized, dissected and ripped apart for public consumption. If you can’t find them on Fox News, try the Internet. Most of the world doesn’t have this privilege.
Maybe I read too much into history. But Hitler did have a Christian Solution after the Jewish Solution was solved through a successful war. Copious references to the Christian Solution in Ian Kershaw’s Nemesis. The gas chambers of Auschwitz were preceded by the pogroms, Inquisitions and the lions of the Coliseum.
Where were the Brits during the 1938 Evian conference?.
Makes you wonder who wants the New World Order badly, and who is eyed as the historical meddler. Will 1938 repeat itself to devour the same victims?
Rice Extends Good Will to Latin Leftists
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday the United States has no quarrel with leftist leaders in Latin America and wants good relations with Bolivia under its new president, a coca growers union boss who once vowed to be “Washington’s nightmare.”
“The United States has no trouble, no difficulty, dealing with countries from either side of the political spectrum,” citing Chile and Brazil as left-of-center governments that have good economic and other ties with Washington.
“The issue for us is that when you’re elected democratically that you govern democratically,” Rice said. That was a jab at Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has eroded democratic norms in that country and made anti-Americanism the centerpiece of his foreign policy. He frequently calls President Bush a terrorist.
Now, that’s the way to go. Maybe Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton can be sent to calm ruffled feathers in Caracas, and the US does owe that gesture. A cynical world is waiting.
I just hope this administration practices what it preaches. If it does, watch things unfold.
Written by Mathew Maavak, (email – mathew@maavak.net) who had studied crisis management, media crisis, propaganda and psychological warfare at the University of Leeds, UK. He is currently a visiting fellow at Jakarta’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Find more of his work at http://www.maavak.net/ and www.populistamerica.com
