(cross-posted at Deny My Freedom and Daily Kos)
This is it.
We are down to the final weekend of the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Connecticut.
Various polls show Ned Lamont with a double-digit lead over Joe Lieberman. Looking at the trends, it’s undeniable that Lieberman has been sliding at a steady pace ever since Lamont officially entered the race in March. However, this is far from over. Despite reports that Lieberman is abandoning his field operation, people on the ground note that his offices are full as ever. His campaign has sunk to new lows as their campaign becomes more desperate. And if it’s only a close victory for Lamont, it means that we’ll have to spend 3 more months battling even harder in Connecticut.
So let’s end it right here, right now. Let’s bury Joe Lieberman.
60% – a 20-point margin of victory – will do just that.
This is the ultimate showdown – and I am not exaggerating a single bit. The Democratic Party establishment is against us. The mainstream media is biased in their coverage, for the most part. The Lieberman campaign is raising more money than Lamont will ever manage to. They are playing dirty. This has become the battleground for proving that people-powered politics is the new paradigm in political races, not your typically run establishment campaign. The reason for the current state of the campaigns can be compartmentalized by the campaign managers of the respective campaigns, both of whom were profiled today in the Hartford Courant. Here’s a little bit on Tom Swan, Lamont’s campaign manager:
But after a few meetings last winter, Swan was convinced that Lamont’s progressive politics were authentic. He agreed to take a leave of absence from his job as director of the Connecticut Citizen Action Group, and bring a few similarly minded friends with him, to run Lamont’s campaign.
George Jepsen, the former state Democratic Party chairman who is supporting Lamont, is amused by the partnership between the Greenwich businessman and the coffee-stained, sandal-wearing CCAG crew that Swan leads.
“They’ve been on the other side of the barricades throwing rocks at the tanks every day of their lives and here they are, possibly on the verge of one of the greatest political upsets in national history,” Jepsen said. “I like to tease them that they were Bolsheviks in a former life and they’re being punished now by being forced to work for the grandson of J.P. Morgan’s partner.”
Tom Swan is no stranger to working in Connecticut politics. He’s been in the state for more than 30 years, and he is clearly in-tune with what resonates with the voters here. Who knows exactly how much Lamont is ‘managed’, but Swan has done an excellent job of making a ‘Greenwich millionaire’, as Lamont’s detractors refer to him as, come across as a genuine man of the people. Credit Lamont for taking the chance of a lifetime when all other politicians in Connecticut were too chickenshit to, but his campaign manager has taken an untapped reservoir of deep unhappiness to Lieberman and made Nutmeggers recognize just how negligent their senator has been the past 18 years.
On the other side, you have Sean Smith, Lieberman’s youthful campaign manager who probably signed up for the job because it’d be an easy addition to his resume. Now, his greenness has quite possibly cost Lieberman the race:
Everyone has advice for Sean H. Smith, 35, a campaign consultant who studied at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, but is getting an education in Connecticut.
[…]
He came looking for work in Connecticut earlier this year with an intention to stay. His wife, Susan Hyde, was joining the faculty at Yale as an assistant professor of political science. Even before she arrived in Connecticut, she could read Internet blogs attacking Lieberman and her husband.
Someone should have reminded Lieberman that he is not the highly relevant national figure he believes to be. First and foremost, he is a senator from a state, and that state is Connecticut. Hiring someone who had been in-state for a few months at most showed a complete ignorance to the growing threat, even though Lieberman’s internal polls were showing he could be in potential trouble at the beginning of the year.
The wide gap of experience and time in Connecticut between Swan and Smith is just one of many reasons Lamont has been surging as of late. It helps that in the latest Quinnipiac poll, 86% of the people who responded had said their mind was made up. While it may be difficult for Lieberman to come back at this stage of the game, no one knows what will actually happen. The likely voter models that the polls have been using are completely untested – not a surprise, considering Connecticut hasn’t had a primary in several decades – and both campaigns say their internal polls show a tight race. It helps that momentum is on our side, but at this point, we need to view August 8 in the frame of the bigger picture. Look at how much attention the blogosphere has been paying to this race while completely neglecting Jim Webb in Virginia, even though we helped push him over the line in his primary race against Harris Miller. Imagine the insanity that has been going on over the last week – and imagine another 12 weeks of the same. Some of Lieberman’s supporters (a lot, in fact) claim that this race has been overshadowing more important matters, such as Connecticut’s competitive House races or other Senate campaigns.
They’re right – it has diverted attention. But the only reason it will continue to do so is if their candidate – Joe Lieberman – continues his fight for what he believes is his Senate seat, even if he loses the primary.
This is why we don’t only need to beat Lieberman on Tuesday. We need to deal a devastating blow to him at the polls.
Today, New Jersey senator Frank Lautenberg suggested that if the margin of victory was over 10 points, Lieberman would abandon his independent bid. The Lieberman campaign denied the speculation, and the claim seems purely speculative. While a 10-point margin of victory – 55% for Lamont – sounds great, Lieberman would figure that 45% is close enough to half of all Democrats, and considering that Republicans like Lieberman more than Democrats, this may be enough to push him over the top. On the other hand, if Lieberman lost by big double digits, he would clearly have to figure that there is widespread outrage against him, and that such a resounding loss would undoubtedly impact his numbers in the general election. There will also be widespread pressure on him from the Connecticut Democratic Party establishment and possibly from national figures that he should step down for the good of the party.
Regardless of any prognostications anyone makes, all that matters is getting out the vote. Don’t listen to the spinsters who are trying to dramatically lower expectations for Lieberman this coming Tuesday. Don’t listen to the politicians telling you that we are hurting the party.
Volunteer at one of the several offices that the Lamont campaign has in Connecticut. Tell your family, friends, acquaintances, and former high school crushes who live in Connecticut about Ned Lamont. In any way you can, make sure that Lamont voters get to the polls on August 8.
The next 4 days, let’s work to get 60% of the vote. That way, in 5 days, Joe Lieberman can declare that he is beginning his retirement early.
