What would the Senate look like if the Democrats took it over? I have tried to figure it out. To do so, I analyzed the current committee positions of every Democrat, and the background of the most likely new Democrats that would be part of a takeover. For the purposes of my study I made the following optimistic assumptions:
1. That Robert Menendez will hold his seat in NJ.
2. That Bernie Sanders will replace Jim Jeffords in VT.
3. That Amy Klobucher will replace Mark Dayton in Minnesota.
4. That Ben Cardin will win the Maryland primary and replace Paul Sarbanes.
5. That all incumbent Democrats will win.
6. That Ned Lamont will knock out Joe Lieberman.
7. That the following Democrats will knock out incumbent Republicans: Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee, Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhode Island, Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb in Virginia, and Bob Casey, Jr. in Pennsylvania.
If all that happens, the Democrats will have a 51-48 advanatage with Bernie Sanders in our caucus. I still have hopes for Pederson in Arizona and Carter in Nevada, but I did not include them.
My methodology assumes that no Senator can be the head of two committees at the same time. This required some adjustments. Max Baucus is the ranking member on both Finance and Environment. I gave him Finance. That elevated Barbara Boxer to the chairperson position on Environment. Paul Sarbanes is the ranking member on Banking. He is retiring. That elevated Chris Dodd to the ranking member. He is also the ranking member on Rules. I gave him banking and elevated Diane Feinstein to the chairperson on Rules. Joe Lieberman is the ranking member on Homeland Security. The next is line is Carl Levin. He has Armed Services. I left him there. After him comes Daniel Akaka who is the ranking member on Veteran’s Affairs. I left him with Veteran’s Affairs and elevated the next in line, Tom Carper, to chair Homeland Security.
All other committees simply flipped from the current Republican to the current ranking Democrat.
For all the new Democratic chairpersons I list the Republican they will be replacing.
Taking a quick look at my work it seems obvious that the most glaring advantages and dramatic improvements will be made in the Judiciary, and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committees. According to my projections, three Senators will acquire committees who are not even ranking members at the moment. Two of them are women. Check out my handywork below the fold and tell me what you think, and how it bodes for the country. All committees are listed in terms of seniority. And, in so far as possible (excepting committee chairs) I have aimed to have each Senator sit on at least 4 committees. Evan Bayh currently sits on six. He is the hardest working member of Congress.
True freshman are bolded.
AGEING (11 members, no subcommittees):
Chairperson: Herbert Kohl- WI (Gordon Smith- OR)
Ron Wyden- OR
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Evan Byah- IN
Tom Carper- DE
Bill Nelson- Fl
Hillary Clinton- NY
Ken Salazar- CO
Ned Lamont- CT
Sherrod Brown- OH
Bob Casey, Jr.- PA
AGRICULTURE (11 members, 4 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Tom Harkin- IA (Saxby Chambliss- GA)
Patrick Leahy- VT
Kent Conrad- ND
Max Baucus- MT
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Ben Nelson- NE
Ken Salazar- CO
Jon Tester- MT
Claire McCaskill- MO
Amy Klobucher- MN
Appropriations (15 members, 12 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Robert Byrd- WV (Thad Cochran- MS)
Daniel Inouye- HI
Patrick Leahy- VT
Tom Harkin- IA
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Harry Reid- NV
Herbert Kohl- WI
Patty Murray- WA
Byron Dorgan- ND
Diane Feinstein- CA
Richard Durbin- IL
Tim Johnson- SD
Mary Landrieu- LA
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
ARMED SERVICES (13 members, 6 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Carl Levin- MI (John Warner- VA)
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Robert Byrd- WV
Jack Reed- RI
Daniel Akaka- HI
Bill Nelson- FL
Ben Nelson- NE
Evan Byah- IN
Hillary Clinton- NY
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Barbara Boxer- CA
Ben Cardin- MD
Harold Ford, JR.- TN
BANKING (11 members, 5 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Chris Dodd- CT (Richard Shelby- AL)
Tim Johnson- SD
Jack Reed- RI
Charles Schumer- NY
Evan Byah- IN
Tom Carper- DE
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
Ned Lamont- CT
BUDGET (12 members, 0 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Kent Conrad- ND (Judd Gregg- NH)
Patty Murray- WA
Ron Wyden- OR
Russ Feingold- WI
Tim Johnson- SD
Robert Byrd- WV
Bill Nelson- FL
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Richard Durbin- IL
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Bernie Sanders- VT
COMMERCE (12 members, 9 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Daniel Inouye- HI (Ted Stevens- AK)
John Rockefeller- WV
John Kerry- MA
Byron Dorgan- ND
Barbara Boxer- CA
Bill Nelson- FL
Maria Cantwell- WA
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Ben Nelson- NE
Mark Pryor- AR
Jeff Bingaman- NM
Harold Ford, Jr.- TN
ENERGY (12 members, 4 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Jeff Bingaman- NM (Pete Domenici- NM)
Daniel Akaka- HI
Byron Dorgan- ND
Ron Wyden- OR
Tim Johnson- SD
Mary Landrieu- LA
Diane Feinstein- CA
Ken Salazar- CO
Robert Menendez- NJ
Jim Webb- VA
Ben Cardin- MD
Jon Tester- MT
ENVIRONMENT (10 members, 4 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Barbara Boxer- CA (James Inhofe- OK)
Tom Carper- DE
Hillary Clinton- NY
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Barack Obama- IL
Joe Biden- DE
Patrick Leahy- VT
Amy Klobucher- MN
Ben Cardin- MD
Sherrod Brown- OH
ETHICS (3 members from each side, 0 subcommittees)
Co-chairperson: Tim Johnson- SD (co-chair George Voinovich- OH)
Mark Pryor- AR
Bernie Sanders- VT
FINANCE (11 members, 5 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Max Baucus- MT (Charles Grassley- IA)
John Rockefeller- WV
Kent Conrad- ND
Jeff Bingaman- NM
John Kerry- MA
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Ron Wyden- OR
Charles Schumer-NY
Herbert Kohl- WI
Jon Tester- MT
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
FOREIGN RELATIONS (10 members, 7 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Joe Biden- DE (Richard Lugar- IN)
Chris Dodd- CT
John Kerry- MA
Russ Feingold- WI
Barbara Boxer- CA
Bill Nelson- FL
Barack Obama- IL
Amy Klobucher- MN
Harold Ford, Jr.- TN
Jim Webb- VA
HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR, PENSIONS (11 members, 4 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Teddy Kennedy- MA (Michael Enzi- WY)
Chris Dodd- CT
Tom Harkin- IA
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Jeff Bingaman- NM
Patty Murray- WA
Jack Reed- RI
Hillary Clinton- NY
Mary Landrieu- LA
Ned Lamont- CT
Claire McCaskill- MO
HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS (9 members, 3 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Tom Carper- DE (Susan Collins- ME)
Carl Levin- MI
Daniel Akaka- HI
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Mark Pryor- AR
Barack Obama- IL
Bob Casey, Jr.
Jim Webb
Bernie Sanders
INDIAN AFFAIRS (8 members, 0 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Byron Dorgan- ND (John McCain- AZ)
Daniel Inouye- HI
Kent Conrad- ND
Daniel Akaka- HI
Tim Johnson- SD
Maria Cantwell- WA
Jon Tester- MT
Bernie Sanders- VT
INTELLIGENCE (9 members, 0 subcommittees)
Chairperson: John Rockefeller- WV (Pat Roberts- KS)
Carl Levin- MI
Dianne Feinstein- CA
Ron Wyden- OR
Evan Bayh- IN
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Russ Feingold- WI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
JUDICIARY (10 members, 8 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Patrick Leahy- VT (Arlen Specter- PA)
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Joe Biden- DE
Herbert Kohl- WI
Diane Feinstein- CA
Russ Feingold- WI
Charles Schumer- NY
Richard Durbin- IL
Amy Klobucher- MN
Sherrod Brown- OH
SMALL BUSINESS (10 members, 0 subcommittees)
Chairperson: John Kerry- MA (Trent Lott- MS)
Carl Levin- MI
Tom Harkin- IA
Mary Landrieu- LA
Maria Cantwell- WA
Evan Bayh- IN
Mark Pryor- AR
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
Ned Lamont- CT
Bob Casey, JR.- PA
VETERAN’S AFFAIRS (8 members, 0 subcommittees)
Chairperson: Daniel Akaka- HI (Larry Craig- ID)
John Rockefeller- WV
Patty Murray- WA
Barack Obama- IL
Ken Salazar- CO
Hillary Clinton- NY
Claire McCaskill- MO
Jim Webb- VA
