While the fighing continues in Iraq and bodies pile up, the Shia leaders are acting like they have won and are taking steps reflective of their perceived victory. Prime MInister Maliki moved quickly this week to advance Iranian interests in the region while continuing to request that U.S. forces stay in Iraq to help protect the Shia-dominated government from the Sunni insurgents.
Today’s announcement that Iraq and Syria re-establshished diplomatic relations after 28 year old break up is a dramatic signal that Iran’s dominance in the region is spreading at the expense of the United States. Quite a counterpoint to the spectacle of the Bush Administration officials, like John Bolton, condemning the Syrians and the Iranians for meddling in Lebanon. Wild gesticulations by angry Bush Administration folks were met by a collective yawn among the Shia in the Middle East.
Talk about chutzpah, not only did the Iraqi leaders, whom we are funding and protecting, bury the hatchet with Damascus, with the tacit approval of Teheran, but they also called on the United States to stay in Iraq for the time being. Why should they fight the Sunni insurgents when America can do the dirty work?
The restoration of Iraqi/Syrian ties comes on the threshhold of an Iranian, Iraqi, and Syrian summit. So, while the United States displays its impotence against Iran and Syria, Iraq is moving ahead with plans to enlist its neighbors in a concerted effort to quell the Sunni insurgents.
In this regard the United States is laboring under the myth of the foreign fighter. While it is true that jihadists from other countries continue to try to make their way into Iraq to fight the crusaders (i.e., the United States), most of the violence in Iraq is carried out by indigenous insurgents and militia. That means our efforts to “fight the terrorists” there before they attack us in Peoria is totally irrelevant to the dynamics actually driving the conflict. In fact, preliminary stats for 2006 indicate that the dramatic increase in international terrorist attacks we have seen during the last two years is now on the decline even though the violence in Iraq continues to spiral upward.
The clear losers in this new equation are the Sunni insurgents and tribes. With Iraq becoming more segregated along sectarian lines everyday, the question of dividing the old Iraq into three separate areas appears moot–we are already in a state of de facto partition. They will continue to fight the Iraqi Shia and protect their ethnic areas. However, they will confront a major resource crisis because they lack oil. They will be forced to rely on the support of Sunnis in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. We should not be surprised to see Jordan emerge as the major infiltration and resupply route for Iraqi Sunnis.
Things get even more interesting with the murder of Pierre Gemayel in Lebanon. U.S. efforts to spin the story as further evidence of Syrian and Iranian perfidy is gaining little headway. Pat Lang has an excellent take on this. If a new civil war breaks out in Lebanon, Iran and Syria, not the United States, are best positioned to take advantage of the conflict to bolster their respective positions in the region.
Within Iraq the Shia militia have been careful to avoid a head on confrontation with US forces. Some believe this reflects their fear of engaging the technologically superior Americans. Perhaps. But it maybe that they recognize that a US military effort to destroy Sunni insurgents in Iraq ultimately works in their longterm interests. That status quo will remain intact as long as the United States does not try to disarm or dismantle the Shia militia.
In the event the new US reinforcements decide to dismantle Shia militia we should not be shocked when the Shia militia move quickly to shutdown the U.S. resupply line that runs from Kuwait to Baghdad.
The United States now confronts the dilemma of fighting on behalf of a Shia dominated government in Baghdad, which in turn bolsters the position of Iran, which the United States continues to try to isolate in the international arena, or going after the Iraqi government elected by the Shia majority in Iraq. It is too late for a political abortion. The newborn Shia led government of Maliki is starting to find its diplomatic legs. He may not be able to keep the lights on and the water flowing, but he certainly is pulling our chain. And the results signal a big black eye for the U.S. in the region.
