Certainly I am not so prescient as to be the only person in this world to know the exact solution to the war in Iraq. I think it’s been clear for some time and if troop surge policies continue to be the path taken by the United States government, in particular the Bush administration, it will become the only solution that can lead to a victory in Iraq (in terms of American interest). The quick answer is a Secular Sunni dictator supported by the United States government, and I will explain why.
Voices in the Wilderness
Currently in Iraq one thing seems certain, the United States government has no leverage over the Shia government because quite honestly the Shia government is in no need of the United States. There is no doubt that they don’t mind usurping the billions of dollars a month that the U.S is providing their government but in many ways the Americans have become a barrier in the way of vengeance. Moreover, the Shiite controlled government has strong ties to the Iranians who would no doubt see it in their best interest to supply and empower the status quo government in Iraq (or some slight variation thereof).
As against the war as I am it is difficult to call for an immediate withdrawal in Iraq (certainly many Americans selfishly disagree) because of the inevitable outcome. It happened in Afghanistan, it happened in Rwanda and it will happen in Iraq if the Americans do not handcuff the Shiite government: Genocide. It is a pillar of collapse of evil, colonial policies. Governments support minorities in order to “protect” them from the strong arm of Majorities (particularly when the majorities are against the occupying forces). These policies, brutal though they maybe, have a tendency to work, in the eyes of the occupiers, in as long as the support of the occupying force or colonial powers remains strong. Should the support dwindle then the majority is in a position to take back what is theirs and more; they usually do, and by force. This is in part what the world is witnessing in Iraq and it will get worst once the Americans leave. I have written before about the regional war that will start if there is a true, full out civil war in Iraq. Americans are in no position to leave. Bush is right, as hard as that is to believe, leaving now will make matters worst.
The answer to an American victory in Iraqi lies with the leverage they can hold over the Sunnis. The guaranteed protection against the Shia’s, the arming of a Sunni controlled army and the weakening of Iran’s influence among the Iraqi elite is gained only through a Sunni dictator whose sole way of survival is his American support. Sunnis have much more to gain from America than do the Shias and the Americans have much more in common with the Sunnis Secularist in Iraq (former Saddam loyalist) than they do with Islamic theocrats. Iran will play its hands now because they realize that the relationship they share with Iraq is far greater than America’s relationship with Iraq. With a Sunnis government in Iraq armed to the teeth Iran dare not support the Shias, particularly with the Sauds, and Jordan all hell bent on preventing Iran from gaining a stranglehold on the region. The pieces are their and the solution, which proved the correct solution for 25+ years will work if implemented and the shift will happen in short order. With one sure swoop the United States can ensure superiority in the region, having virtual control over four governments in the region (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt) who survive solely on the basis of American support. These governments can all be armed without fear of turning coats (as long as the American, “Democracy in the Middle East” policy is dropped). The consequences of true democracy in the Middle East do not fit the true American interest because of the inevitable clash with fundamentalist (who have proven to be much more organized than so called, “reformist”).
If the policy above (condensed for sure) is enacted I will point out the hypocrisy of the United States every step of the way. I will oppose such a policy and I will not condemn those who actively fight against such a policy. That being said, that is the only solution in Iraq that serves American interest in the region.
Interestingly enough that solution was in place before the war began. Billions of dollars, thousands of American soldiers, tens, if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqi souls only to find out that Saddam Hussein was the solution for Iraq. America will have to find another Sunni dictator, a little less Anti American than Saddam became in the latter years
